December 2, 1999
Web posted at: 1:46 p.m. EST (1846 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- New polls released Thursday morning in New England show that the two major party front-runners -- Texas Governor George W. Bush for the Republicans, and Vice President Al Gore for the Democrats -- may well be able to count on a majority of votes in New Hampshire's February 1, 2000 primary, but the esteem of state voters may not directly reflect vote tallies.

A poll conducted by the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research firm for the Concord Monitor newspaper shows Bush and Gore with minor leads in each of their races, but respondents voiced more personal regard for former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, Gore's only Democratic opponent, and GOP Sen. John McCain, who is providing Bush with fierce opposition in the Granite State.

The organization polled some 628 registered New Hampshire voters on November 29 and 30. Republicans preferred Bush over McCain by 41 percent to 36 percent, while Democrats expressed a preference for Gore over Bradley by a margin of 45 percent to 43 percent.

Of the remaining Republicans, publisher Steve Forbes was preferred by 7 percent of respondents, former ambassador and radio talk show host Alan Keyes 3 percent, Gary Bauer 2 percent and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch 1 percent.

The Mason-Dixon poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Boston television station WBZ and the Boston Globe showed 45 percent of likely Republican voters favoring Bush, compared to some 31 percent for McCain.

The Globe/WBZ poll surveyed the likings of some 400 likely New Hampshire voters. The full field of GOP candidates apart from Bush garnered a favorability rating of only 11 percent. The Globe/WBZ poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Brad Coker of Mason Dixon, quoted in the Monitor, said despite Bush's favorable numbers, he could find himself on the losing end when the New Hampshire primary votes have all been counted.

"Typically when a candidate has a higher favorability rating they probably have an advantage, particularly among independent voters," said Coker. "It means if you stopped the process today and held the election, Bradley or McCain might win, because they're more highly thought of right now. They have more upward mobility."

Bush and McCain received favorable marks of 63 percent and 53 percent respectively from potential voters in the nation's first Election 2000 primary. Some nine percent vocalized unfavorable impressions of Bush, while the mention of McCain's name brought about unfavorable reactions from 4 percent of respondents.

Roughly 57 percent of possible Democratic voters said they had a favorable opinion of the vice president, while 17 percent said they did not view him favorably. According to the Mason-Dixon poll, Bradley enjoys a 64 percent favorability rating, with a 4 percent unfavorability rate of response.

The Mason-Dixon results are telling. Some amount of unpredictability is routinely expected from New Hampshire primary voters, who often prefer underdogs, dark horse major party candidates, or independently minded candidates. In 1996, independent voters cast approximately 20 percent of primary ballots in the state. That number is not expected to change drastically in 2000.

Gore's handlers attributed the lower favorability rating to the perceptions New Hampshire voters held of the Clinton Administration, rather than Gore's perceived ability to lead on his own.

"He is trying to define his own vision for all the voters, and that can be a tough challenge for a sitting vice president," campaign spokesman Doug Hattaway told the Monitor. "In a way the vice president actually has more work to do in introducing himself."

Mo Elleithee, a Bradley campaign spokesman, said the results showed Gore's attacks on Bradley's policy stances -- including the Bradley health care plan -- were not working to the vice president's favor.

"I think the polls show that Sen. Bradley's message is continuing to resonate well with voters in New Hampshire and that the vice president's strategy of dividing and attacking is simply not working," Elleithee told the Monitor.

Republican strategist Dave Carney told the Monitor he thought the results simply illustrated the expected behavior of a large block of independent voters.

"Independents go with the exciting guy who has a chance to be the front-runner," he said. "They go with the upset, they like the ability to have some impact on a close race."

Nonetheless, the McCain campaign welcomed their support.

"There's no question that independent voters are an important part of our winning formula," said McCain campaign spokesman Todd Harris.

Thursday, December 2, 1999

• Bush endures slaps from GOP rivals in fully attended candidate forum
• Journalists ask court for more information on grand jury related matters
• Gingrich won't attend party celebrating GOP takeover he helped engineer
• New Hampshire polls provide Bush, Gore with mixed bag of indicators
• CBO says budget breaks spending caps; dips into Social Security Trust Fund
• GOP candidates address Republican Jewish Coalition
• Clinton signs child labor treaty at world trade talks
• Required law reading: New York mayor's First Amendment clashes
• 1999: The year Congress did little on the immigration front
• Giuliani courts Jewish support, polls show first lady losing support among women
• Analysis: Bush takes stage for first presidential campaign debate
• Bush stands firm on free trade, questions Gore's ability to withstand labor pressure
• Trump says world views U.S. trade officials as 'saps'
• Media tours GOP convention site, Democrats behind schedule
• Bradley to focus on race, health care in speech to black legislators
• Gore clarifies latest campaign exaggeration
• NHPrimary.com: Wife of George W. Bush stands behind husband’s philosophy on education

ARCHIVES