December 28, 1999
Web posted at: 6:28 p.m. EST (2328 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- It's been a century of rapid demographic change, and charting the course is the government's latest Statistical Abstract, a vast compendium of facts and figures about America.

In 1900 an American was more likely to be a man than a woman and more likely to be under 25 than older. This "typical American" likely lived in a rural area, in the East. As an adult, the biggest item in his budget was food.

At the end of the century, the "typical American" is a woman in her early 40s who lives in the suburbs and her biggest budget item is medical care. Call her Ms. Typical.

In 1900, New York had five times the population of California. Now California has twice as many residents as New York. The western boom has pulled the population center to the Mississippi, moving Ms. Typical to St. Louis.

So what are her politics?

Thirty years ago, Democratic author and columnist Ben Wattenberg attempted to answer that by profiling the typical voter. In doing so, he identified an issue agenda that has dominated politics to this day.

In their classic work "The Real Majority", Wattenberg and his co-author Richard Scammon gave Ms. Typical of 1970 a real-world identity: a machinist's wife from Dayton, Ohio.

"And we said that here was a suburban housewife, and we said that contrary to the popular belief at that time, which is that voters vote principally on the economic issues -- this was sort of throwback to the New Deal and the Depression when voters indeed did vote on the economy -- we said that a new issue was surging in America."

We called it "the social issue,' which has since come into sort of general usage," he said. "And it was composed of crime, violence, drugs, disruption, riot, out-of-wedlock birth, promiscuity, that whole panoply of issues."

At the time, Wattenberg said those issues were becoming overwhelming in the early 1970s. He said his book warned that "Democrats, and the liberal Democrats particularly, better watch out because this was a tide that would have its way because it was so important to people."

"And in point of fact, the Democrats, my party, did not pay much attention and nominated George McGovern (in 1972) and got creamed," he said.

From Richard Nixon with his law-and-order platform in 1968 and 1972 to George Bush's anti-crime message of 1988, Republicans got the point and won the presidency every year between 1968 and 1992, with the exception of 1976.

And Wattenberg argues that such "social issues" still resonate, pointing to the 1992 election of Bill Clinton to the presidency.

"I did a book in 1995 which examined the 1992 election returns where Clinton through (political adviser James) Carville announced, 'It's the economy, stupid,'" he said. "In all of 1992 there was only poll that showed that economics was the most important concern. All the other issues, the top ones, were social issues."

In 1992, voters were very concerned about crime, welfare, morality, family breakdown and other social issues and Clinton addressed those issues in his campaign, Wattenberg said, adding those issues are still relevant to voters as the 2000 elections approach.

"And when you ask people today what is the most important problem, it depends how the actual question is asked," he said. "Sometimes, when you're talking specifically about issues, education comes up. But when you're talking about what's the biggest problem in America, the answer is morality."

In Wattenberg's view, the issues that motivate the American voter have changed little in 30 years

That may explain the popularity of Texas Gov. George W. Bush, whose family name connotes dignity and integrity. It also could explain the rise of Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose record as a prisoner of war in Vietnam resonates with voters, and who has campaigned as a maverick politician willing to buck the established interests.

"If you believe his book ... he is obsessed with the concept of honor," Wattenberg said. "Well, honor isn't 'the economy,stupid,' honor is part of that multiplex of social issues. And insofar as his campaign surfaces and rises, it will be either, stated or unstated, a powerful counterpoint to President Clinton, who is not regarded as a terribly honorable man."

McCain, of course, is not alone in attempting to win over voters with an appeal to moral issues. Indeed, all of the 2000 candidates have framed their campaign pitches around the theme of morality.

Tuesday, December 28, 1999

• 20th century brings changes to the American voter
• Minnesota attorney general sues over sharing of public radio donor lists with DNC, others
• Forbes makes living-room appeal for Social Security reform
• For debate junkies, it's that time of year
• Republican actors keep views quiet in liberal Hollywood
• Clinton predicts chemical mini-weapons in 21st century

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