From...

by David Moschella

(IDG) -- With all the focus on the Y2K countdown and the coming millennium, it's easy to forget that we're also approaching the end of a century, one where computers have gone from the virtually unimaginable to the virtually inescapable.

As a way of looking back, I have selected what I think are the 10 most decisive developments in the history of the U.S. IT industry. Rather than focus on the many dramatic breakthroughs in semiconductors, storage, software and networking, I have focused on the specific actions of individuals, companies and governments. Whereas the laws of physics make certain technological innovation almost inevitable, the list below shows that the actions of humans are nothing of the sort.

MORE COMPUTING INTELLIGENCE

IDG.net home page

A guide to computer history on the Web

Great moments in computing history, 1998

The history of Star Wars games

Year 2000 World

Reviews & in-depth info at IDG.net

E-BusinessWorld

Year 2000 World

Questions about computers? Let IDG.net's editors help you

Subscribe to IDG.net's free daily newsletter for IT leaders

Search IDG.net in 12 languages

News Radio

Fusion audio primers

Computerworld Minute

1909. Stanford University President David Starr Jordan provides $500 to help Lee deForest develop the vacuum tube. In the 1930s, the leadership of another Stanford professor, Frederick Terman, helps assure that what's now called Silicon Valley would lead the world in the integration of technical knowledge, entrepreneurship and venture funding.

1914. After a dispute with NCR CEO John Patterson, Thomas Watson Sr. leaves the cash register giant and joins the underachieving Computing, Tabulating and Recording Co., which Watson in 1924 renames International Business Machines. The ruthless techniques Watson learned at NCR become a key factor in IBM's success. Who knows what our industry would look like if Watson had simply stayed at NCR?

1956. In order to settle the government's second antitrust suit against IBM, the company agrees to exit from the processing services business and to sell, as opposed to just rent, its tabulating equipment. These semivoluntary deci- sions help launch the independent computer services, computer leasing and used equipment businesses.

1964. IBM successfully introduces its radically new 360 family of computers, assuring that its near monopoly in electromechanical accounting equipment makes a smooth transition into the computer age. The descendants of this 35-year-old system still dominate high-end corporate computing. Enough said.

1969. Shortly after the government launches its third antitrust suit, IBM announces that it will unbundle its pricing — charging separately for hardware, software and services. This decision initiates a huge and ongoing shift away from vertically integrated offerings toward a much more specialized IT industry.

1981. IBM introduces its PC. Open systems, end-user computing, microprocessor power, the Microsoft and Intel monopolies and the rise of Compaq, Seagate and more follow. This is truly the IT industry's Big Bang.

1984. The government-ordered breakup of AT&T revitalizes competition in both telecommunications services and equipment, setting the stage for today's network-centric era.

1986. The National Science Foundation establishes a network of five supercomputing centers, triggering an explosion in university Internet connections. There have been many key moments in the development of the Internet, but the shift from military applications toward general university usage was a critical early stage.

1990. IBM and Microsoft officially go their own operating system ways. Microsoft opts for Windows and NT; IBM gets stuck with OS/2.

1998. The U.S. government launches its antitrust suit against Microsoft. All history suggests that an even more competitive and dynamic industry will result.

Although not one of these far-reaching developments was inevitable, just imagine where we'd be if events had gone another way. What's on your list?