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COMPUTING

From...
PC World

Forecast for 2000

December 29, 1999
Web posted at: 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT)

by Cameron Crouch and Tom Mainelli

(IDG) -- Stylish and powerful PCs. Notebooks and personal digital assistants. Cheaper digital cameras. Set-top boxes. You could have it all--and connect it all. Yes, the amazing world of Y2K is upon us. Here's what's in store.

Pretty PCs

PC purists scoffed at Apple's iMac with its fruity colors and the floppy drive MIA. However, in 2000 expect more PC manufacturers to follow suit with snappy-looking computers. "Boxes will get smaller and more stylish. Even in the corporate segment style will count," says Roger Kay, research manager of personal systems at International Data Corporation.

  MESSAGE BOARD
The need for speed?
 
Computers like Dell's WebPC are the wave of the future, Kay says, as vendors try to differentiate products not just by price and performance, but by appearance.

The WebPC, announced in November, is a small, hourglass-shaped consumer PC that offers Universal Serial Bus ports only, a one-touch connection to technical support, optional, interchangeable color accents--and no floppy drive. It'll give the iMac a run for its money in the "ain't that cute?" market.

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Expect to see more models that fall in line with the "legacy-free" concept. A legacy-free PC doesn't just mean leaving out the floppy drive and designing a curvy case. It means breaking reliance on old, outdated technology that slows down the system and makes it difficult to use, says Schelley Olhava, an IDC research analyst.

"For many, the PC is still very intimidating," she says. Eliminating EISA slots, removing parallel and serial ports, and using USB ports makes PCs easier to set up and use.

Gigahertz nirvana

The yearly prediction of the PC's untimely demise will once again prove false, analysts say. While Net appliances will proliferate in the next year, the PC will remain the center of attention, Kay says.

Just don't expect those handsome, well-connected new PCs to drop in price much, says Stephen Baker, director of hardware analysis at PC Data. Extreme low-end prices won't drop much below the $399 mark because it's nearly impossible for manufacturers to make money at that price.

On the high end, processor speeds will reach epic proportions in 2000. Intel surprised some observers with its accelerated December shipment of 800-MHz Pentium IIIs. Advanced Micro Devices is likely to follow suit with an equally fast Athlon chip within weeks. And they're just getting warmed up.

Expect both companies to release chips running at the once-mythical speed of 1GHz next year. Few people actually need that kind of speed, but it sure sounds good, doesn't it?

Also in 2000, Intel will ship its next-generation 64-bit Itanium chip for servers and workstations. These chips won't find their way into mainstream PCs for years, but expect plenty of hype nonetheless.

Speed may rule when it comes to high-end processors and PCs, but also expect new processors for consumers who compute on a budget. Intel will amplify its attack on the low end with a new processor code-named Timna that integrates graphics and sound. Via Technologies will step into the ring with low-cost processors for cheap PCs. And you can expect AMD to keep up the good fight, too.


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