From...

December 30, 1999
Web posted at: 1:57 p.m. EST (1857 GMT)

by Paul Desmond

(IDG) -- Don't believe what you see in the top slot of our Most Powerful Companies chart: Cisco is the big winner in this year's Powerometer survey, our annual reader poll of the most powerful people and companies in networking.

Sure, Microsoft still came out on top, but its margin has dwindled to almost nothing. Across the board, no matter how the power question was asked, the 250 respondents thought less of Microsoft this year than last - in some cases far less. And the survey was taken in October, before Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson said Microsoft was a monopolist that doesn't play fair.

Cisco, meanwhile, closed Microsoft's lead to a mere seven-tenths of a percentage point in the 1999 Power Rating. If our other indicators prove correct, next year Cisco will land the top spot. It already holds the top position in the Power Gain Index, which is derived by subtracting the percentage of respondents who thought a company lost power in 1999 from those who said the company gained power. Cisco scored a whopping 73.2 on the Power Gain Index, nearly 20 percentage points above Lucent and MCI WorldCom, which tied for second at 55.2.

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On the Power Predictor scale, which is calculated the same way as the Power Gain Index rating but asks respondents whether a company will gain or lose power in 2000, Cisco again came out on top. It scored 70.4, slightly more than 10 percentage points higher than second-place MCI WorldCom and its 59.2. Microsoft, meanwhile, placed fifth with a score of 47.2, which, by the way, is exactly the same as last year's score. Cisco's rating was 19.2 percentage points higher than last year. Beginning to get the picture?

A final clue that this will be Microsoft's last year atop the Most Powerful Companies chart lies in a number you won't find on any of the charts. But if you add the Power Gain score to the Power Predictor score, you get a pretty good idea of which companies readers think are truly powerful. Here are the top five and their scores: Cisco, 143.6; MCI WorldCom, 114.4; Lucent, 113.2; Sun (including the Sun-Netscape Alliance), 94.8; and Microsoft, 89.6.

OK, enough Cisco accolades. A few other companies deserve mention for their 1999 power surges, including the three that most improved their position vs. last year on the Most Powerful Companies chart: Sun (up three spots, to No. 6), Nortel Networks and Network Associates (up five spots each, to No. 12 and No. 14, respectively).

Sun also had the largest net gain from last year on the Power Gain and Power Predictor charts, with 16.8 and 20.8 percentage point improvements, respectively. The Internet revolution apparently has been good to Sun, fueling demand for its servers, Java products and services.

Sun's alliance with Netscape no doubt helps, too. And to think Sun paid only $350 million for the right to resell Netscape software while America Online paid $4.2 billion to buy Netscape. It was a powerfully good deal for Sun.

Nortel likewise had a reasonably good year, with its five-spot jump on the overall Most Powerful Companies chart. But strangely, the company made no overly impressive gains in any of the other power categories except perhaps the Power Predictor; it placed sixth there in terms of biggest rating gain from last year. So stay tuned - Nortel could be in for a good run next year.

Network Associates is a similar story, posting a solid gain in the Most Powerful Companies category, but that's about it; the firm actually lost ground vs. last year in its Power Gain rating and posted only a 2.8% gain in the Power Predictor. That number is typical of companies in the middle of the Powerometer pack. So what accounts for Network Associates' big jump in the Most Powerful Companies chart? It could be simply that the company is in a hot product area - network security.

Among other notables is BellSouth, which posted the third-largest jump in the Power Gain Index and fourth-largest in the Power Predictor. MCI WorldCom likewise did well in both categories, tying with Oracle and Sprint for the fifth-largest increase in the former and coming in with the third-largest in the latter.

But Sprint paid the price for MCI WorldCom's gain, with a relatively large drop in the Power Predictor Index, as would be expected. Sprint will cease to exist once - if - it is folded into MCI WorldCom.

Talk of large drops brings us to the other side of the story: the big losers. Just as Cisco is the undisputed winner, Compaq is the goat. The company is in a veritable power free fall, dropping five spots on the Most Powerful Companies chart and posting the largest percentage loss vs. last year in the Power Gain (a 43.2% drop) and Power Predictor (a 29.2% drop) categories. Compaq's -8.4 Power Gain Index rating was the only negative figure in that category. And asked to name the single company that lost the most power in 1999, 12% of respondents said Compaq, the second-highest percentage of any company.

First in that category was Novell at 16.8%, an indication of the power outage the company suffered in 1999 after making solid gains in the 1998 Powerometer survey. Novell dropped three slots on the Most Powerful Companies chart to No. 13 and placed next-to-last in the Power Gain Index scoring and the Power Predictor Index rating.

Novell did top two other categories, but it won't be bragging about them, either. Novell was named by 9.2% of respondents as the company that should have a good deal of influence over the industry, but doesn't, and by 14% as the company that will lose the most power in 2000.

3Com likewise has cause for concern. It dropped four spots in the Most Powerful Companies chart, had the second-highest percentage loss vs. last year in the Power Gain and Power Predictor indexes, and was one of five companies deemed to have lost the most power in 1999.

3Com competitor Cabletron is likewise petering out, power-wise. It is fourth from last in all three main power indicators: Most Powerful Companies, Power Gain and Power Predictor. Cabletron tied with 3Com for fifth as the company that lost the most power in 1999 and is third on the list of companies expected to lose the most power in 2000.

An argument could be made that Cabletron's position is better than Newbridge Networks', however. Newbridge came in dead last on the Most Powerful Companies chart, last in Power Predictor and third to last in Power Gain. It didn't appear on any of the "single company" questions; at least Cabletron came to mind among respondents.

A former Network World editor, Desmond is vice president of King Content, an editorial services company in Southborough, Mass. He can be reached at paul_desmond@king-content.com.