Poll: McCain holds thin lead over Bush in New HampshireGore leading Bradley in Granite StateBy Keating Holland/CNN
January 21, 2000
Web posted at: 3:55 p.m. EST (2055 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The New Hampshire Republican primary is currently a neck-and-neck race between Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain, with McCain holding a narrow 39 to 37 percentage-point margin, according to a new CNN/Time poll.
Vice President Al Gore has a larger edge of 50 to 43 percentage points over former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley among likely Democratic primary voters.
The poll of 522 likely Republican primary voters and 505 likely Democratic
primary voters was conducted on January 19 and 20.
Both parties' New Hampshire contests have a gender gap, with men going for the challengers Bradley and McCain, and women supporting the establishment
candidates Gore and Bush.
Other interesting splits on the GOP side: veterans go heavily for McCain, but Bush has a very small lead among non-veterans. And McCain wins big among moderates, while conservatives currently go for Bush. That could be significant if a conservative candidate emerges from Monday's Iowa caucuses, since that candidate might pull a good number of votes from the Bush camp.
McCain appears to have an edge on many personal characteristics, but Bush beats McCain on a number of issues. Some 70 percent say McCain is inspiring; less than half say that about Bush, while 69 percent say McCain has new ideas, and only 55 percent say that about Bush.
McCain has a similar edge when likely primary voters are asked who they
respect, who understands world affairs, and who cares about the average
American.
But over half think that Bush would do a better job than McCain on
the economy, education, and upholding conservative values, and Bush has a small
edge on taxes.
If Granite State voters are looking for a winner, however, Bush
may have an advantage -- 78 percent say that Bush can beat the Democratic nominee and
only 57 percent say that about McCain.
Gore, by virtue of having a larger lead over Bradley, has a wider margin than Bradley on most personal qualities and issues.
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| Gore | 50% |
| Bradley | 43% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| McCain | 39% | Keyes | 7% |
| Bush | 37% | Hatch | 1% |
| Forbes | 10% | Bauer | 1% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| | Men | Women |
| Gore | 45% | 54% |
| Bradley | 50% | 39% |
| Sampling error: +/-6% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| | Men | Women |
| McCain | 39% | 38% |
| Bush | 34% | 40% |
| Sampling error: +/-6% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| | Veterans | Others |
| McCain | 45% | 37% |
| Bush | 29% | 39% |
| Sampling error: +/-7% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee |
| | Moderates | Conservatives |
| McCain | 51% | 24% |
| Bush | 30% | 46% |
| Sampling error: +/-7% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Views of Candidates |
| | McCain | Bush |
| Inspiring | 70% | 49% |
| Has new ideas | 69% | 55% |
| Not a typical politician | 55% | 40% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' View of Who Would Better Handle... |
| | Bush | McCain |
| Education | 53% | 32% |
| Economy | 52% | 32% |
| Conservative values | 51% | 36% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' View of Who Would Better Handle... |
| | Bush | McCain |
| Social Security | 36% | 49% |
| Health care | 36% | 43% |
| Campaign finance | 22% | 64% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' View of Who Would Better Handle Taxes |
| Bush | 46% |
| McCain | 42% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Can Win in November? |
| Bush | 78% |
| McCain | 57% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' Views of Candidates |
| | Gore | Bradley |
| Experience | 89% | 60% |
| Understands world affairs | 88% | 61% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' View of Who Would Better Handle... |
| | Gore | Bradley |
| Economy | 60% | 26% |
| Education | 60% | 29% |
| Health care | 50% | 39% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Likely Primary Voters' View of Who Would Better Handle... |
| | Gore | Bradley |
| Poverty | 46% | 41% |
| Social Security | 45% | 39% |
| Campaign finance | 31% | 52% |
| Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
| Can Win in November? |
| Gore | 62% |
| Bradley | 42% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
Sampling error: +/-4% pts |
|
