Des Moines Register: Mixed bag for Bush in poll results
By Jonathan Roos and John McCormick/Des Moines Register
January 23, 2000
Web posted at: 5:04 p.m. EST (2204 GMT)
DES MOINES, Iowa (Des Moines Register) - A new Iowa Poll contains both good and unsettling news for Republican front-runner George W. Bush
on the eve of the Iowa caucuses.
In the Democratic contest, the poll offers mostly bad news for former Sen. Bill Bradley, who has
fallen further behind Vice President Al Gore.
Bush, the Texas governor, is the presidential choice of 43 percent of Iowa registered voters who
say they definitely or probably will take part in Monday's Republican caucuses.
That's a statistically insignificant drop of 2 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll, taken
in early January, and still leaves Bush 23 points ahead of publisher Steve Forbes, his closest
competitor.
Bush's support has drifted lower, however, since an Iowa Poll in November showed him to be the
choice of 49 percent of likely Republican caucus voters. Then, he had a 29-point lead over Forbes.
Bush can take comfort from the fact he has locked in most of his supporters, with 60 percent
saying their minds are made up, according to the scientific poll sponsored by The Des Moines Register.
The wild card for Bush, Forbes and those Republican candidates battling for third place in the
caucuses are the 14 percent of likely participants who say they are unsure or uncommitted. That bloc
of swing voters has grown by 3 percentage points since early January.
The nation will be watching Monday when Iowa's Republican and Democratic caucuses launch the
presidential nomination process.
In the two-man Democratic race in Iowa, Gore has put even more distance between himself and
Bradley, according to the poll.
The vice president is the presidential preference of 56 percent of likely Democratic caucus
participants. That's double the support Bradley has in the poll.
A significant segment of likely Democratic caucus-goers - 16 percent - say they are undecided or
uncommitted.
Bradley, whose campaign has invested heavily in Iowa with extensive television advertising, needs
to win over many of those undecided Democrats. He's hoping for a solid second-place showing in the
caucuses in order to create momentum going into New Hampshire, where he's running a close race with
Gore.
The vice president, who would like to deal Bradley a major blow in Iowa, can take plenty of
encouragement from the new poll.
He leads in every demographic group. Just 28 percent of his supporters say they could be persuaded
to back another candidate. That compares with 42 percent of Bradley's supporters who say they could
change their minds.
Some of Bradley's biggest slippage since the early January poll has occurred among households with
a labor union member in the family. His support from that group, a major Democratic constituency, has
dropped from 33 percent to 24 percent in the latest poll.
Scott Frye, a John Deere worker from Cedar Falls who took part in the poll, gives the nod to Gore
because he believes the vice president will continue the successful economic policies of the Clinton
administration.
"Under Clinton I bought a house, got out of debt. I'm a heck of a lot more prosperous now than I
was in the '80s," said Frye, 45.
Bradley's message of bold new leadership clearly appeals to other Democrats.
Patricia Dean, 66, of Des Moines, likes the former New Jersey senator's can-do spirit.
"It's like going to the moon. There's something about him that is inspirational," Dean said. "Al
Gore is terrific. But Bradley gives me that little edge of spirit."
The Republican contest is more complicated. With Bush getting the support of 43 percent of likely
Republican caucus participants and Forbes receiving 20 percent in the Iowa Poll, the scramble is on
for third place among the other candidates bunched behind.
Sen. John McCain and conservative commentator Alan Keyes each receive 8 percent of the support in
the poll. That puts them in a statistical tie with Gary Bauer, who garners 6 percent.
Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah brought up the rear with support from only 1 percent. The poll's margin
of error was 4 percentage points.
Sallie Hayes, 42, of Libertyville, said she plans to support Keyes even though she doesn't think
he has any chance of winning.
Hayes, who works in real estate, said Keyes has the highest integrity of any of the candidates in
the race. "I want my kids to have an example in the White House," she said.
The poll shows Keyes sapping support from Forbes. Among those who pick Keyes as their first
choice, 40 percent say Forbes is their second choice while just 27 percent pick Bush.
McCain's support appeared to be fading during the course of the polling, which began last Sunday
and ended on Friday. His tally at the end of the polling period was about half of what it was at the
beginning.
The Arizona senator has passed up campaigning in Iowa and instead has concentrated on the New
Hampshire primary, which follows the caucuses by a week.
In another sign of weakness for McCain, just 44 percent of those who plan to support him say their
minds are made up, compared with about 60 percent for other Republican candidates.
Mary Hoelscher, 44, has yet to pick a Republican to support, although she does plan to attend the
caucuses.
"These politicians come in here and say that they will give you this and that so that you vote for
them," said Hoelscher, a Dubuque hospice nurse. "I am not looking for promises. I am looking for
integrity."
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