Des Moines Register: Some see Iowa's leadoff role in jeopardyBy John McCormick and Jonathan Roos/Des Moines Register
January 24, 2000
Web posted at: 12:49 p.m. EST (1749 GMT)
 DES MOINES, Iowa (Des Moines Register) - A sizable percentage of Iowans planning to attend this evening's precinct caucuses worry that the state won't maintain its first-in-the-nation status four years from now, a new Iowa Poll shows.
Iowa leaders cherish the early role the state plays in the presidential nomination process because it provides invaluable exposure and clout in helping shape the nation's agenda.
However, only a slim majority of likely caucus participants think the state will manage to keep its leadership position when the nation selects its president in 2004.
The poll shows 54 percent of likely caucus participants feel certain the state will again host to the first caucuses.
An additional 20 percent have serious concerns that Iowa will lose its early status, while 6 percent say they are convinced the state won't play host to the first caucuses in 2004. The remaining 20 percent say they aren't sure.
Critics have long said Iowa is too atypical of the country to be allowed such a prominent role in the presidential-selection process. Looking at the state's demographics, that point can easily be made.
But Iowa has managed to keep its spot in the limelight, partly because the nation's political leaders have been unable to agree on another way of nominating candidates.
The caucuses also have earned a measure of respect because Iowa participants generally take their role seriously in screening presidential candidates, and campaigning for the caucuses forces candidates to get out and meet people as opposed to relying solely on TV ads.
Inertia has helped the state maintain its early position as well.
Efforts at national primaries or regional primaries have failed for lack of consensus, and the parties have failed to make reforms because there's no credible threat that can be brought against states that don't play by the rules.
Poll participants picked lack of involvement as their top reason for fearing the state will lose its first-in-the-nation status.
Among Democrats, 57 percent list low participation as the biggest problem. For Republicans, 61 percent say lack of involvement is the biggest problem with the caucuses.
Chuck Jackson, 48, a Democrat from Boone, is one of those concerned about the fact that only about 20 percent of registered Republicans and Democrats participate in the caucuses. Between 175,000 and 200,000 Iowans are expected to attend tonight's meetings.
"It's hard to put a lot of weight on the Iowa caucuses when a lot of Iowans themselves are not involved," said Jackson, business manager for Jordan Motors in Johnston.
The caucuses are important to Iowa, Jackson said, because they give the state a loud voice in pressing agricultural issues that are of little interest in many other states.
After low participation, Republicans and Democrats both rank an emphasis on raising money over winning supporters as the next biggest problem with the caucuses.
Among Democrats, 51 percent say a stronger emphasis on raising money was a major problem with the caucuses this election cycle, while 37 percent of Republicans say so.
Although the state GOP straw poll is criticized by some for prematurely knocking candidates out of the race before real votes are cast, Republican poll participants listed the event, held in Ames last summer, as the least worrisome threat to Iowa's early caucus status.
Just 19 percent say the straw poll was a major problem in the operation of this year's caucus system. Among Democrats, 27 percent say the Republican straw poll was a major problem.
Doubts about the future of the caucuses are greatest among likely caucus participants who don't think Iowans reflect the nation as a whole.
Just 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers and 46 percent of the Republican caucus-goers who share that view say they feel pretty certain the caucuses will remain first in the nation.
Tom Lewis, an electrician who lives near Mount Pleasant, said he expects the national political parties will eventually put bigger states ahead of Iowa on the political nomination calendar.
"It seems like it's quite a bit about money, and it seems like they might like to have that money spent someplace else," said Lewis, a political independent rooting for Republican John McCain.
He agrees with caucus critics that Iowa is small, mostly white and atypical of the nation as a whole. He also believes candidates put more emphasis on raising money than on winning supporters.
"Our political system has become more about money than it has about people," Lewis said.
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