January 28, 2000
Web posted at: 5:42 p.m. EST (2242 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Republican race in New Hampshire has become a dead heat with Texas Gov. George W. Bush now holding a 37 percent to 36 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain -- well within the margin of error -- according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.

Publisher Steve Forbes is third with 15 percent and Alan Keyes is fourth with 9 percent.

McCain's biggest drop has come among registered independents, who have been the mainstay of his support to date. The Arizona senator's share of the independent vote has dropped 15 points since the weekend before the Iowa caucuses. The main beneficiaries of McCain's loss among independents have been Forbes and Keyes, who each gained six points among New Hampshire independents since Iowa -- while Bush gained only three points.

One interpretation: before Iowa, most anti-Bush Independents supported McCain because he was the best-known alternative, but the Iowa results shone the spotlight on Forbes and Keyes and turned them from unknowns into viable alternatives to Bush. McCain's favorable rating also dropped since the weekend, with some of the heaviest losses among Independents and among women.

Forbes and Keyes have become more popular after Iowa -- and some of the biggest increases in their favorable ratings have come from independents. Looking ahead, McCain's strength is his personal qualities, while Bush scores highest on more pragmatic items. Likely GOP primary voters say that McCain is more in touch with average Americans than Bush and is more trustworthy. But they also feel that Bush is more likely to get things done in Washington, more likely to keep the economy strong, and has a better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in November.

The poll is based on interviews with 466 likely Democratic primary voters and 587 likely Republican primary voters conducted January 25-27. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points unless otherwise noted.

Likely Voters' Choice for Nominee
Bush	37%
McCain	36%
Forbes	15%
Keyes	9%
Bauer	*

Likely Voters' Choice for Nominee
	Jan. 20-22	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 22-24	Jan. 23-25	Jan. 24-26	Jan. 25-27
Bush	33	34	33	36	35	37
McCain	42	43	45	43	40	36
Forbes	13	13	12	12	14	15

Likely Voters' Choice for Nominee
Gore	56%
Bradley	40%

Likely Voters' Choice for Nominee
	Jan. 20-22	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 22-24	Jan. 23-25	Jan. 24-26	Jan. 25-27
Gore	52	50	51	53	57	56
Bradley	43	45	45	44	39	40

Registered Independents' Choice for Nominee
	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 25-27
McCain	58%	43%
Bush	22	25
Forbes	12	18
Keyes	6	12
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

Registered Republicans' Choice for Nominee
	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 25-27
Bush	39%	43%
McCain	36	32
Forbes	13	14
Keyes	7	7
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

Favorable Ratings Among All Likely Voters
	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 25-27
McCain	82%	77%
Forbes	52	62
Keyes	46	54

Favorable Ratings Among Registered Independents
	Jan. 21-23	Jan. 25-27
McCain	87%	78%
Forbes	53	63
Keyes	37	56

Likely Voters' Opinion of Candidates
	Bush	McCain
Can win in November	74%	17%
Keep economy strong	50	32
Can get things done	46	39

Likely Voters' Opinion of Candidates
	Bush	McCain
In touch with people	34%	54%
Someone you can trust	34	46

On the Democratic side, Iowa has affected likely primary voters' views of Vice President Al Gore in two significant ways: they are more likely to view Gore as a winner and more likely to believe he has a vision for the future. Before Iowa, 66 percent thought Gore had a better chance than former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley of winning in November; now 78 percent feel that way. Thirty-nine percent felt Gore had a better vision for the future than Bradley; now 46 percent do. Likely voters say they prefer Gore's health care and education proposals to Bradley's.

Who Has Best Chance of Winning in November?
	Jan. 20-22	Jan. 25-27
Gore	66%	78%
Bradley	26	15

Who Has Vision for the Future?
	Jan. 20-22	Jan. 25-27
Gore	39%	46%
Bradley	38	35

Who Has Best Health Care Plan?
Gore	46%
Bradley	39

Who Has Best Education Plan?
Gore	57%
Bradley	29

Friday, January 28, 2000

• On weekend before New Hampshire primary, independent voters relish opportunity
  
• Video: Candidates carefully plan ad buys
  
• Candidates pick up pace, endorsements in final days of New Hampshire campaign
  
• Poll: GOP race in New Hampshire has become dead heat
  
• Clinton tries out State of the Union proposals in Illinois
  
• Republicans step up fight over primary ballot in New York
  
• Bradley welcomes Weicker endorsement
  
• NHPrimary.com: Keyes rails against abortion, taxes
  
• Sununu endorses Bush in New Hampshire
  
• New Hampshire newspaper editorial blisters Bush
  
• Des Moines Register: Attendance drops substantially for Iowa caucuses
  
• Keyes raises eyebrows in talk to fifth graders
  
• New Hampshire independents savor important role they could play
  
• Rudy voodoo doll joined by Hillary
  
• Arkansas Supreme Court orders review of ethics complaint against Clinton
  

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