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One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels. |
Stuart Rothenberg: Not one race, but twoBy Stuart Rothenberg/CNN
February 1, 2000
Web posted at: 10:51 p.m. EST (0351 GMT)
Vice President Al Gore (D) and Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) received a dose of cold water from New Hampshire voters Tuesday, as the two reformers in the race, former senator Bill Bradley (D) and Sen. John McCain (R), did unexpectedly well in the Granite State's presidential primaries.
McCain's solid, double-digit win over Bush, fueled largely by independent voters, was large enough to raise questions about the inevitability of the governor's nomination. And that inevitability has been Bush's single greatest asset in his presidential bid.
While Bush has held solid leads in a number of the upcoming primaries, including in February 19 South Carolina GOP contest, McCain's victory is likely to cause Palmetto State voters to take a second look at the Republican contest. That isn't good for Bush, who has the support of much of the state's old political establishment but hasn't weathered the intense scrutiny he faced in Iowa and New Hampshire.
So far, Bush has tried to pursue a two-track strategy: appeal to GOP voters by emphasizing traditional party themes, such as taxes and local control of education, but position himself for the fall by presenting himself as a "uniter" and by limiting his attacks on McCain. He may not be able to continue to follow that strategy.
"In South Carolina, Bush will have to scrap the two-track approach. He'll have to tell voters in that state that McCain 'is not one of us' on social issues," one GOP operative not working with either campaign told me as the votes rolled in.
McCain talked a great deal about campaign finance reform and national security during his campaign, but it may well have been his overall style - as a reform-oriented outsider who talks straight and is a strong leader - that helped the Arizonan overcome the state establishment's support for Bush.
Those same characteristics could play well in South Carolina, which has no party registration and allows all voters (including independents and Democrats) to participate in the GOP primary.
Bush's long-term advantages in the Republican race remain considerable. He has been fighting a national campaign (running TV ads and making telephone voter identification calls in all of the states with primaries between New Hampshire and March 7th), while McCain has been focusing of New Hampshire, and to a much lesser extent, South Carolina and Michigan.
The South, with its more conservative voters, remains a Bush asset. The governor is sure to win most of the delegates in his home state of Texas, and he has an obvious edge in Florida, where his brother is the governor. Those two states account for 204 delegates, about 10 percent of all delegates at the GOP convention and approximately one-fifth of the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.
So Bush is still the Republican favorite, but he is a much shakier, less certain front-runner today than he was just a few weeks ago.
It probably goes without saying that Steve Forbes suffered a crushing defeat in the Granite State. He may decide to stay in the race through Delaware, or he may look reality in the eye and simply exit the race gracefully immediately.
On the Democratic side, Al Gore's victory seems less than satisfying.
Yes, he won, and he now has two consecutive wins, counting the Iowa caucuses. But Bill Bradley's "comeback" -- insiders believed in recent days that he might suffer a double-digit loss at the hand of the vice president -- allows the former New Jersey senator to claim that he has "turned the race around."
With millions in the bank and a growing dislike for Gore, Bradley now seems certain to take his campaign to California and New York, on March 7. Both states seem ripe for Bradley, who is well known in the metropolitan New York area and has raised lots of money in both states.
Some Democratic insiders are now likely to call for Bradley's exit, claiming that further attacks on Gore will undermine Democrats' chance in the general election. But Bradley's showing was strong enough to convince the former senator and his supporters that the race for the nomination is far from over.
Bradley still faces an uphill fight, but like McCain, the New Hampshire results give him another shot at Gore. And, as the results in the Granite State prove, anything can happen in politics.
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