Poll: McCain gains 12 points in South Carolina

By Keating Holland/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Arizona Sen. John McCain's huge victory in last week's New Hampshire primary has given the GOP upstart a 12-point boost in South Carolina. McCain now leads Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a narrow 44 to 40 percent margin among likely voters in the state's February 19 primary.

The Arizona senator nearly doubled his support among moderates and enjoys a comfortable margin among veterans, who constitute a quarter of the likely GOP electorate.

McCain also leads Bush among Independents, but lags behind among Republicans and conservatives by a 13-point margin. Indeed, the outcome of the South Carolina primary will probably turn on how many moderates, liberals, Independents and Democrats turn out to vote for the "open primary."

What effect did the New Hampshire primary have on views of McCain in South Carolina? There is just one difference between the current poll and a CNN/Time poll taken in the state a week ago -- more voters now say McCain can beat the Democratic nominee in November, while the number who say Bush can win the general election has dropped. The two candidates are now virtually tied on that measure.

The poll is based on interviews with 515 likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina. It was conducted on February 4-5, and has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, unless otherwise noted.

	Independents	Republicans
McCain	57%	37%
Bush	27	50

	Moderates	Conservatives
McCain	66%	37%
Bush	22	47

	Veterans	Others
McCain	54&	42&
Bush	36	41

	S.C. Natives	Moved to S.C.
McCain	40%	48%
Bush	43	33

CNN/TIME POLL
SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRIMARY
McCain's Support Among...

	Now	Jan. 26-27
Moderates	66%	36%
Veterans	54	30
Independents	57	42

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to John McCain: Can beat the Democratic nominee in November.

	Now	Jan. 26-27
Yes	64%	52%
No	19	30

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush: Can beat the Democratic nominee in November.

	Now	Jan. 26-27
Yes	66%	78%
No	21	12

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush and John McCain: Can beat the Democratic nominee in November.

	Now	Jan. 26-27
Bush	66%	78%
McCain	64	52

Do you consider John McCain to be very conservative, somewhat conservative, a moderate or a liberal?

	Now	Jan. 26-27
Conservative	52%	62%
Moderate	31	25

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to John McCain: Shares the values of South Carolinians.

Yes 62% No 18

Yes	62%
No	18

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush and John McCain: Earned the right to be president.

	Applies	Does not apply
McCain	67%	20%
Bush	54	34

Which candidate -- Bush or McCain -- do you think would do a better job of reforming the government in Washington?

McCain	49%
Bush	34

Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies or does not apply to George W. Bush and John McCain.

	McCain	Bush
Sincere	80%	70%
Honest and trustworthy	79	69
Understands world affairs	77	62
Strong leader	75	65
Inspiring	71	59
Has new ideas	66	55