Poll: McCain tops Gore in November, still trails Bush

By Keating Holland/CNN

February 28, 2000
Web posted at: 4:43 p.m. EST (2143 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Arizona Sen. John McCain continues to beat Vice President Al Gore by double digits in general election match-ups but still trails Texas Gov. George W. Bush by double digits for the GOP nomination, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

McCain also is the most popular presidential candidate, due in part to a steady slide in Bush's favorable ratings. Bush, in fact, is now less popular than Gore for the first time in this campaign, although he continues to hold a lead over the vice president among likely voters. Among likely voters, Bush currently would win 52 percent and Gore 43 percent if the election were held today.

McCain has an even bigger lead, 59 to 35 percent, among likely voters. Among registered Republicans, however, Bush holds a 57 to 33 percent advantage -- essentially unchanged by the South Carolina and Michigan primary results. The race would narrow to a 48 to 40 percent lead for Bush if McCain wins most of the vote on March 7th (when California, New York, Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, and the New England states will choose delegates).

On religion in politics, Bush's letter to New York's Cardinal O'Connor may have been prompted by his poor showing among Catholic Republicans. McCain and Bush are essentially tied among Catholics -- 46 percent for McCain (his best group) to 45 percent for Bush. What about McCain's remarks on the religious right in Virginia Beach on Monday morning? Nearly a third of all Americans (and one in five Republicans) think that Bush is too close to the religious right, and the number of Americans who think Bush is too conservative has grown since mid-January.

But the biggest drop for Bush has come in the number of Americans who say they would be proud to have him as president. Last March, 63 percent felt that way about Bush; today only a bare majority do. Other problems for Bush: nearly half of all Americans think he is smug, and a majority think he goes too far in criticizing his opponents.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,004 adult Americans, including 444 registered Republicans, 346 registered Democrats and 500 likely voters. It was conducted February 25-27 and has a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points unless otherwise noted.

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Sen. John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Gore, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican? (Question asked of likely voters.)

McCain	59%
Gore	35%

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Gore, the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican? (Question asked of likely voters.)

Bush	52%
Gore	43%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000 -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain, or political commentator Alan Keyes. (Question asked of registered Republicans.)

Bush	57%
McCain	33%
Keyes	4%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

As you may know, a number of states around the country will be holding their Republican primary elections for president on Tuesday, March 7. On this day, also know as Super Tuesday, a large number of Republican delegates will be chosen. If John McCain wins most of the votes in these Republican primaries on Super Tuesday, but all the current candidates remain in the race, who would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination at that point -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain or political commentator Alan Keyes?

Bush	48%
McCain	40%
Keyes	2%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000 -- former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley or Vice President Al Gore. (Question asked of registered Democrats.)

Gore	65%
Bradley	28%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each person -- or if you have never heard of him.

McCain	66%
Gore	59%
Bush	57%
Bradley	54%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of George W. Bush -- or have you never heard of him?

	Now	January
Favorable	57%	66%
Unfavorable	35%	26%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000 -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain, or political commentator Alan Keyes. (Question asked of registered Republicans.)

	Catholics	Protestants
Bush	45%	61%
McCain	46%	30%
Sampling error: +/-8% pts

For each of the following candidates, please say whether you think his political views are too conservative.

	Yes	No
Bush	33%	64%
McCain	19%	62%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

George W. Bush
Now	33%
January	27%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

For each one, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush.

Is someone you would be proud to have as president
Now	52%
1999	63%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

For each one, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush/John McCain.

Is too close to the religious right
	Yes	No
Bush	31%	57%
McCain	15%	67%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Is smug
	Bush	McCain
Yes	49%	31%
No	42%	51%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Goes too far in criticizing his opponents
	Bush	McCain
Yes	54%	41%
No	39%	49%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Why does Bush do so much better than McCain among Republicans even though the Arizona senator is more popular nationwide? Bush's advantages include electability and leadership, but his biggest edge appears to be on the issues. Sixty of all Republicans say that they agree with McCain on the issues -- but a whopping 76 percent say they agree with Bush on the issues.

Slightly more Republicans say that Bush is a strong and decisive leader, and 57 percent say that Bush has a better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in November than McCain does. Twenty-one percent of all Republicans say that Bush is too conservative -- but 26 percent say that McCain is too liberal, and 32 percent say that McCain is not a real Republican. Bush has also convinced as many Republicans that he is a reformer as McCain has.

Next, thinking about the following characteristics and qualities again, please say whether you think it applies or does not apply to George W. Bush/John McCain.

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about
	All Republicans
Bush	76%
McCain	60%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Is a strong and decisive leader
	All Republicans
Bush	76%
McCain	69%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Who do you think has the better chance of beating the Democratic candidate for president in November

George W. Bush or John McCain?
	All Republicans
Bush	57%
McCain	34%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

For each of the following candidates, please say whether you think his political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal.

Too conservative
	All Republicans
Bush	21%
McCain	13%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Too liberal
	All Republicans
McCain	26%
Bush	13%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

For each one, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush.

Is a real Republican
	All Republicans
Yes	80%
No	16%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts

For each one, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush.

Is a real Republican
	All Republicans
Yes	59%
No	32%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts