Race for delegates intensifies on 'Super Tuesday'

High stakes on March 7 sure to alter presidential contests

By Amy Paulson/CNN

March 3, 2000
Web posted at: 9:02 p.m. EST (0202 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With a name like "Super Tuesday," it's a safe bet that expectations will be high among both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates March 7, when more than a third of the nation's electorate will cast their votes in primaries and caucuses throughout the country.

Once the results are in from the participating 16 states and the territory of American Samoa, the complexion of the presidential primary season may be irrevocably altered as the real race -- for the all-important delegate count -- intensifies and the days of face-to-face politics with candidates and voters fade into distant memory.

The respective front-runners, Vice President Al Gore for the Democrats and Texas Gov. George W. Bush for the Republicans, hope to pull well ahead of their rivals in the race for delegates on Tuesday in the key primary states of California, New York, Ohio, Missouri, and Georgia, as well as several New England states.

Democratic presidential candidates Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley will go head to head for 1,315 delegates -- slightly more than 60 percent of the 2,168 delegate votes needed to win the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former ambassador Alan Keyes will compete for 605 delegates -- more than half of the 1,034 needed to secure the GOP nomination.

After soundly defeating the Arizona senator in Washington, Virginia and North Dakota contests last Tuesday, Bush boasts twice the number of delegates as McCain: 208 to 104.

His Washington win in particular had Bush feeling optimistic about his chances in California. "I have a spring in my step," he told voters Wednesday.

And despite McCain's best efforts to portray himself as a so-called Reagan Republican who can expand the party's base, polls indicate he trails Bush among likely Republican voters in delegate-rich California, and he is nose-to-nose with the Texas governor in New York.

"There's going to be a lot of people watching next Tuesday. There's going to be a decision to be made, which direction goes the Republican party in the United States of America," McCain told supporters in New York on Friday.

In both New York and California, only GOP votes will count toward delegate selection. However, in California, registered voters of any party may participate in what has been called the "preference primary."

As a result, McCain may end up winning the popular vote but losing the delegate count.

But despite the negative tenor of the GOP race, McCain has promised that he will not stage a protest at the Republican national convention in Philadelphia next summer if that is, indeed, the case.

"I'm loyal no matter who our nominee is and I will support that nominee," McCain vowed during the final GOP debate in Los Angeles.

William Kristol, editor and publisher of The Weekly Standard, predicted McCain could probably win in New York, perhaps Ohio, and probably the popular vote in California.

"He's got to make the reform argument and the electability argument within the next few days," Kristol said. Polls have shown that in hypothetical general election match ups between McCain and Gore, the Arizona senator would prevail.

Meanwhile, the Democratic contest has been on a near-hiatus since the February 1 New Hampshire primary, and the lack of media attention has wounded Bradley's efforts to appeal to voters as the thinking man's candidate -- a reformer with "big ideas."

Gore overwhelmed the former New Jersey senator in last Tuesday's "beauty contest" primary in Washington state, even after Bradley invested six days there -- leaving Super Tuesday states such as New York, Ohio and neighboring California alone.

The vice president has so far garnered 42 delegate votes to Bradley's 27. Most polls show Bradley trailing Gore by a margin of 2-to-1, and the former New Jersey senator has yet to win any state, but is hoping for a strong showing in the New England states participating in next Tuesday's contest.

"He has made me a better candidate," Gore said Wednesday night after what could only be described as a docile debate with Bradley, his once bitterest of primary rivals.

"Gore looks increasingly formidable" as an opponent in the general election, said Kristol.

Bradley has vehemently denied rumors swirling around his campaign that he had plans to withdraw from the race, instead insisting that Tuesday marks the beginning of his beleaguered campaign, rather than its end.

"If there's any sign of life in that campaign, I haven't been able to detect it," Greenfield said of Bradley's presidential bid.

Critical tests in California, New York and Ohio

California is the proverbial brass ring with its 367 Democratic and 162 GOP delegates in a winner-take-all primary. The second largest prize is New York, which offers up 243 Democratic delegates and 93 Republican delegates.

The New York primary is open only to voters registered by party, and delegates will be apportioned to the candidates along vote percentage. After a heated court battle in early February, McCain will appear on the ballot in all 31 congressional districts.

Ohio's open primary rounds out the top three contests, yielding 146 Democratic delegates and 69 delegates for the Republicans. The Buckeye State is considered a bellwether, as it has consistently chosen the presidential nominees over the past 50 years.

Winning those three states alone would yield the victor in either party more than 30 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination. Both Bush and McCain have spent nearly $3 million apiece on ad buys in the New York, California and Ohio -- an unprecedented sum.

Voters in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont will head to the polls as the candidates compete in mostly open primaries Tuesday. Democrats, Republicans and independents there will determine who will take home the 207 Democratic and 102 Republican delegates.

Regional polls show Gore leading Bradley, but McCain -- who won the New Hampshire primary with the help of Democrats and independents -- leads Bush throughout the region with the exception of Maine.

"I think that the people of Maine aren't going to listen to pollsters and pundits," a hopeful Bradley told a Portland crowd on Friday. "I think they're going to vote their hearts and their convictions."

Rounding out the Tuesday primaries are events for both parties in Georgia, Missouri and Maryland. Maryland's Democratic primary is closed -- the Republicans also allow independents to vote -- while any registered voter may participate in contests hosted by Georgia and Missouri. Winners in those states will reap 220 delegates for the Democrats, and 120 for Republicans.

Democratic caucuses also will occur in Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Washington state, and American Samoa for a total of 132 delegates. And Republicans in Minnesota and Washington will attend caucuses to select 34 and 25 delegates respectively.