Poll: Bush, Gore virtually tied

CNN/Time poll shows gains for Gore

By Keating Holland/CNN

March 10, 2000
Web posted at: 7:19 p.m. EST (0019 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With the end of the presidential primary season drawing near, Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush are currently locked in a virtual tie, with Gore winning support from 48 percent of all registered voters to 46 percent for Bush, according to a new CNN/Time poll released Friday.

That 48 percent to 46 percent figure represents the first time that Gore has led Bush in any CNN poll dating back to 1998 -- but given the poll's sampling error, it is not possible to say that Gore is leading Bush. The poll was conducted March 8-9, 2000, and consisted of interviews with 1,559 adult Americans.

But the poll does indicate that Gore's support has risen significantly since the start of the year, based largely on gains among men (12 points), low-income voters (14 points), and voters who never went to college (13 points).

At the start of the year, Bush led Gore by 56 percent to 39 percent. That dropped to 50 percent to 42 percent in the days after the New Hampshire primary.

What effect would John McCain have on the election in November? McCain as Bush's running mate might help the GOP only slightly; McCain as a third party candidate would hurt both parties about equally.

In a hypothetical match-up between a Bush/McCain ticket and a Gore/Bradley ticket, the GOP ticket would get 49 percent, to 46 percent for the Democrats. If McCain ran as a Reform party candidate, he would win support from 18 percent of all registered voters, drawing about evenly from Bush and Gore.

With Pat Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate, Gore would have 46 percent to 43 percent for Bush and 5 percent for Buchanan.

Breaking down the Bush-Gore horse race

Bush and Gore start the second phase of this campaign tied in the horse race figures and in many other ways as well. Their favorable ratings are almost identical, and equal numbers of registered voters describe the two candidates as honest, having new ideas, and sharing their values.

Just 44 percent say they admire Gore, and only 42 percent admire Bush. But there are some advantages on either side.

Sixty-three percent say that Bush has the necessary knowledge and understanding to be president, which is not as high as the 71 percent who feel that way about Gore.

More voters say that Gore cares about the average American (65 percent) than feel that way about Bush (55 percent), the so-called compassionate conservative.

More voters also say that Gore is sincere (61 percent) than say that about Bush (53 percent).

But voters don't yet see Gore as a strong and decisive leader -- a chief symptom of "vice-presidentitis" -- while they do believe that Bush is a strong leader. The Texas governor outshines Gore in that category by 56 percent to 47 percent.

Bush also has an edge over Gore on the crime issue, which has climbed to the top of the public's concerns. Forty-seven percent say that Bush would handle crime better than Gore; just 39 percent say that Gore would handle that issue better. Gore beats Bush on issues of lesser importance, including education, health care, and world affairs.

	Gore	Bush
Now	48%	46%
February	42%	50%
January	39%	56%
Sampling error: +/-3% points

Bush/McCain	49%
Gore/Bradley	46%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Gore	40%
Bush	39%
McCain	18%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Gore	46%
Bush	43%
Buchanan	5%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Now	January
Gore	51%	38%
Bush	41%	58%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

	Now	January
Gore	45%	41%
Bush	49%	55%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

	Now	January
Gore	54%	40%
Bush	40%	55%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

	Now	January
Gore	37%	40%
Bush	59%	56%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

	Now	January
Gore	47%	35%
Bush	48%	59%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

	Now	January
Gore	48%	43%
Bush	44%	53%
Sampling error: +/-6% pts

Easy choice	58%
Tough choice	22%
No choice	16%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Gore	Bush
Favorable	55%	54%
Unfavorable	38%	36%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Gore	Bush
Knowledgeable	71%	63%
Cares about people	65%	55%
Sincere	61%	53%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Yes	No
Bush	56%	34%
Gore	47%	43%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Bush	Gore
Honest and trustworthy	53%	54%
Shares your values	51%	50%
Has new ideas	49%	50%
Someone you admire	42%	44%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Yes	No
Gore	51%	41%
Bush	47%	43%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Crime	16%
Lack of moral values	11%
Education	6%
Health care	5%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Bush	47%
Gore	39%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

	Gore	Bush
Health care	53%	36%
Education	49%	40%
Social Security	48%	39%
World affairs	47%	40%
Sampling error: +/-3% pts