Bill Press is co-host of CNN's Crossfire. He is providing exclusive analysis to CNN allpolitics.com during the election season.

Bill Press: Will Rudy still run?

By Bill Press/CNN

May 5, 2000
Web posted at: 10:05 a.m. EDT (1405 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- I'm such a political junkie, I not only once volunteered for political campaigns, I not only ran for office myself, I not only talk and write about politics for a living, I even read political novels in my spare time.

Latest read: Joe Klein's new novel "The Running Mate". Damned good book. Follows right on the heels of Klein's blockbuster "Primary Colors", which caused such a sensation when it was published under the name "Anonymous".

But, as entertaining as Klein's second novel is, it has one big disadvantage: no matter how clever, no political novel can match the twists and turns of political real life. Take the New York Senate race.

As my friend Tony Snow says, this spring there was not an atheist left among Washington's political reporters, because they realized that only a loving, all-merciful God would give them a race between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Rodham Clinton to write about. And then -- just when Hillary was hitting her stride, tied with Rudy in the polls, and just when Rudy was about to jump in with both feet -- wham! Stop the presses! The mayor has cancer!

No novel could match that drama.

Needless to say, the fact that Mayor Giuliani has been diagnosed with prostate cancer casts a whole new light on the possibility, and meaning, of a U.S. Senate race. There are two big questions: can he run? And will he run?

Can he run? Most likely, yes. Bob Dole ran for president as a prostate cancer survivor, Joe Torre went back to managing the Yankees, and Bob Novak was back on CNN only a month after surgery. As horrible as any cancer diagnosis is, prostate is one of the most treatable cancers, especially when detected so very early, as in Giuliani's case.

But the nature of treatment and the time of recovery are medical decisions, not political ones. For now, the mayor should simply follow the doctor's orders. His health is far more important than any political office. Only when he and his doctor have agreed on what's best for his physical well-being and survival can Giuliani answer the second question.

Will he run? That's less certain. Even before his cancer diagnosis, some of the members of his own party weren't convinced. After all, unlike Hillary Clinton, the mayor had never officially announced he was a Senate candidate and he had done very little campaigning outside of New York city.

Now, some Republicans are publicly speculating that his illness will give Giuliani the exit he'd been looking for. "He doesn't want to run and has never wanted to run," says an unnamed ally of Governor George Pataki, a Giuliani supporter, in this week's Time. "What he wants is governor in 2002. So this gives him an honorable way out."

And, one presumes, an honorable way in for Rep. Rick Lazio, whom many consider a stronger statewide candidate than Giuliani. Or even for Pataki himself, who cannot run for re-election in 2002 and who now says he might run, if Giuliani decides not to.

Will Rudy still run? My guess is yes, he will. Pataki's allies are just engaging in some wishful thinking.

Rudy Giuliani is a fighter. He will run for U.S. Senate for two reasons: because he wants to prove he can beat his cancer and because he wants to become a hero of conservatives everywhere by defeating Hillary Clinton.

So, voters of New York and political reporters around the country need not despair. After a brief time out, the Hillary and Rudy contest will be back on, in full color -- mainly black and blue. And the choice then will be the same it was at the beginning: A choice between two candidates for Senate -- one, gifted in bringing people together to solve problems, and the other, known for picking fights and pitting people against each other.

That choice is clear. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the next senator from New York.

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Clarification: In my column of March 31, I wrote that Judicial Watch was investigating what they saw as assorted Clinton scandals, including the possible murder of Commerce Secretary Ron Brown by White House operatives on the secretary's plane shortly before his plane crash. Judicial Watch did conduct investigations of all the matters I mentioned but it never attributed Ron Brown's death to Clinton operatives, and never made a definitive statement about the reasons for Vince Foster's death.