Bush gains four-point bounce from Republican convention

By Keating Holland/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Republican convention produced a modest four-point "bounce" for GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush and leaves him with a 17-point lead over Vice President Al Gore -- exactly the same margin that Michael Dukakis had over Bush's father just after the 1988 Democratic convention -- a new poll shows.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found Bush's newfound strength is due to gains areas of traditionally Democratic strength, such as education and Social Security, and the public's belief that Bush cares more about ordinary Americans than Gore does.

Bush made gains mostly among women; the margin among men did not change between the last pre-convention survey, conducted July 25-26, and the current poll, conducted August 4-5.

And while Bush's support among voters under 50 years old went up only one point, it rose eight points among senior citizens. Bush also made gains among Catholics and lower-income voters.

On the issues, Bush made major advances on Social Security, Medicare, health care and education, advantages held by Gore on each of those issues before the convention. Now more Americans prefer Bush over Gore on all of them.

The convention also convinced the public that Bush is more compassionate than Gore -- traditionally a major advantage for Democratic candidates. And it led to an increase in the number of Americans who think Bush is a stronger leader than Gore and has a vision for the country's future.

A slight majority responded that they were "very likely" to vote for Bush (only one-third say that about Gore), and nearly two-thirds thought that Bush would win in November.

The poll consisted of interviews with 1,051 adult Americans, including 653 likely voters.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

         Now    July 25-26

Bush     54%       50%
Gore     37        39
Nader     4         4
Buchanan  1         1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

		Now    July 25-26

Bush     56%       54%
Gore     40        40

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                Bush    Gore

Very likely      51%     33%
Somewhat likely  11      12
Not likely       35      51

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now   June 

Bush       68%    55%
Gore       25     34

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

		Now    July 25-26

Men        56%       56%
Women      53        46

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

         Now    July 25-26

Bush     53%       46%
Gore     41        44
Nader     3         2
Buchanan  *         1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

         Now    July 25-26

Bush     56%       56%
Gore     33        33
Nader     5         6
Buchanan  1         1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

           Now    July 25-26

Under 50   55%       54%
50-64      55        50
Over 64    53        45

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                  Now    July 25-26

Social Security   52%       43%
Education         50        43
Medicare          47        39
Health care       46        41

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now    July 25-26

Bush      52%       43%
Gore      38        45

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now    July 25-26

Bush      50%       43%
Gore      41        45     

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now    July 25-26

Bush      47%       39%
Gore      42        49

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now    July 25-26

Bush      46%       41%
Gore      43        47     

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

	             Now    July 25-26

Be a strong leader   60        54
Have a vision for    53        45
  country's future
Care about people    49        43

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now   July 25-26

Bush      49%      43%
Gore      39       43

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now   July 25-26

Bush      60%      54%
Gore      28       32

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

          Now   July 25-26

Bush      53%      45%
Gore      32       38

The convention also affected the public's views of President Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party, although the respondents, by a small margin, disagreed with Bush's statement that the Clinton administration has wasted the opportunity to address important problems.

Clinton's favorable ratings have gone down, although the number of Americans who approve of how he is handling his job as president has remained steady at a relatively robust 57 percent. Al Gore's favorable rating also has dropped, while Bush's has risen.

But the person who appears to have benefited the most from the GOP convention was Bush's father, whose favorable rating rose to 73 percent.

Sixty-one percent said they respect the opinions of the senior Bush more than Clinton's, and a majority said they would vote for Bush over Clinton if the two ran against each other again.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Yes       42%
No        48

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                  Now    July 25-26

George W. Bush    67%       63%
Al Gore           52        56

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Former President Bush    73%
Hillary Clinton          45
Bill Clinton             42

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Approve      57%
Disapprove   40

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Former President Bush    61%
Bill Clinton             34

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Former President Bush    53%
Bill Clinton             42

This year's convention had a positive, inclusive tone that stood in contrast to previous GOP conclaves. But most respondents said the convention did not convince them that the party has changed.

Although Bush got a modest bounce out of the convention, there may be no "coattail" effect: 47 percent of likely voters before the convention said they planned to vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their district; that number rose in the latest poll by only one point.

The public was split over which party best represents their values.

Two-thirds said Bush would work hard to represent the interests of African-Americans, and half said the GOP does a good job of reaching out to blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities (although more said that about the Democrats).

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Gotten better    37%
Gotten worse      6
Not changed      50

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                  Now   July 25-26

Republican         48%     47%
Democrat           47      47

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Republican      46%
Democratic      43

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                    Yes   No

Republican Party    33%   58%
Democratic Party    25    66

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Yes       66%
No        25

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                     Yes    No

Democratic Party     68%    18%
Republican Party     50     33

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

              Now    1996

Yes           50%     41%
No            33      44

Just over half the respondents said Bush's acceptance speech was excellent or good, almost exactly the same rating that former Sen. Bob Dole's speech won four years ago. This year's convention, however, differed in one respect -- it made more Americans feel better about the Republican Party than either the 1992 or 1996 conventions did, possibly because the party tried so hard this year to present a positive, inclusive view of the GOP.

Bush's running mate, Dick Cheney, remains a net plus for Bush -- 49 percent said Cheney's presence on the GOP ticket would make them more likely to vote Republican this fall; 30 percent said Cheney would make them less likely to vote for the GOP ticket.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

More likely for Bush    44%
Less likely for Bush    27

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                      Now    1996

More likely for GOP    44%    45%
Less likely for GOP    27     34

Question wording: Please tell me whether each of the following makes you more likely or less likely to vote for George W. Bush: What you saw or read of this week's Republican convention in Philadelphia.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

More likely for Bush    45%
Less likely for Bush    21

Question wording: Please tell me whether each of the following makes you more likely or less likely to vote for George W. Bush: Bush's acceptance speech at the Republican convention.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Excellent       19%
Good            32
Just Okay       17
Poor             3
Terrible         1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

               Bush    Dole

               in 2000 in 1996

Excellent       19%     20%
Good            32      32
Just Okay       17      21
Poor             3       5
Terrible         1       2

Question wording: "From what you have heard or read, how would you rate George W. Bush's acceptance speech at the Republican convention on Thursday night -- excellent, good, just okay, poor or terrible?"

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

More favorably    43%
Less favorably    25
Unsure            32

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

           More       Less
         Favorable Favorable

Now         43%        25%
1996        36         28
1992        28         35

Question wording: "From what you have seen or heard about this week's Republican convention, do you have a more favorable or a less favorable opinion of the Republican Party?" (Same question asked about the Republican convention in 1992 and 1996).

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

More likely for GOP    49%
Less likely for GOP    30

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

                       Now    1996
More likely for GOP    49%     60%
Less likely for GOP    30      23

Sources for comparitive polls: Time magazine poll, August, 1988; CNN/Time poll, July 9, 1992; USA Today poll, August 17-18, 1988; Harris Poll, August 19-22, 1988; CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls from August 11, 1996 and August 10-12, 1992