Tracking poll: Gore holds onto lead, crosses 50% for first time

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore has crept across the 50 percent mark for the first time over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, with Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan remaining in single digits.

Interviews with 657 likely voters for the tracking poll, conducted September 18-20, show Gore drawing 51 percent of the vote to Bush's 41 percent, a margin of 10 points.

The new numbers reflect only a one-day change of two to three points in each candidate's support since the start of the week -- well within the margin of error for the poll. But Gore has never won more than 50 percent of the vote in any of CNN's two-way, three-way, or four-way match-ups among likely voters or registered voters dating back to March 1998.

Gore's lead in Thursday's tracking poll is beyond the margin of sampling error. The key question is whether Gore can sustain a statistically significant lead while winning a majority of likely voters in the coming days, or whether the race will again become a close one -- as has happened before.

CNN will be releasing the results on its tracking polls every day until the November 7 elections. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

September 18-20

Likely voters' choice for president

Gore      51%

Bush      41 

Nader      3

Buchanan   1

Sampling error: +/-4 percent pts

COMPLETE TRACKING TREND ON HORSE RACE