CNN poll: Bush maintains post-debate lead

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sunday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll showed GOP presidential candidate Texas Gov. George W. Bush maintaining a solid post-debate lead over Democratic Vice President Al Gore.

If the election were held today, the poll suggests that 50 percent of voters would choose Bush and 41 percent would favor Gore.

Minor party candidates Ralph Nader of the Green Party and Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan were at 3 percent and 1 percent respectively.

Gore's support is low partly because he is on the unfavorable side of a historically high gender gap. Just 33 percent of men currently favor Gore (compared to 56 percent for Bush) and while Gore wins among women, he does so with only 2 percentage points to spare, 48 percent to 46 percent.

That works out to a 15-percentage point gender gap: 48 percent of women choosing Gore minus 33 percent of men planning to vote for him. The gender gap is higher than in any previous election since exit polling started in 1972, and an indication that men may determine the outcome of this election.

With 16 days to go before the election, there is plenty of time for new events, new issues, new facts and new gaffes to change voters' minds and completely alter the dynamics of this race.

The poll indicates the results of the election if it were held today. It was conducted from interviews with 708 likely voters between October 19 and 21, 2000, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

CNN will be releasing the results of its tracking polls every day until Election Day. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 19-21

Likely voters' choice for president

Bush      50 percent
Gore      41 percent
Nader      3 percent
Buchanan   1 percent

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points