Tracking poll: Bush maintains narrow advantage

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- There is no significant change in today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, which gives George W. Bush a 49 percent-42 percent advantage over Al Gore. The survey of 678 likely voters was conducted October 23-25 and has a four-point margin of error.

While just a reflection of voter preferences this week and not a forecast of how they will vote in November, Thursday's results show Bush's support holding up for a second day. This indicates that his strength in the current poll is based on changes in the electorate rather than the random fluctuations to which tracking polls are often subject.

It appears neither candidate has an advantage on several basic issues, including the economy, Social Security and Medicare, which means that personal characteristics may be the tiebreaker many likely voters are using to determine their votes. Bush has an advantage in that area -- 47 percent of likely voters say that Bush is more sincere than Gore in what he says and only 35 percent say that about Gore. Bush also comes out ahead on leadership, honesty, and values. Gore is considered more likely to understand complex issues than Bush.

CNN will be releasing the results of its tracking polls every day until the November 7 elections. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Likely Voters' Choice for President

Bush      49%

Gore      42

Nader      3

Buchanan   1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who Would Better Handle...

                   Gore     Bush


The economy         45%      45%

Social Security     45       46

Medicare            44       46

Education           44       48

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who is More Sincere In What He Says?

Bush      47%

Gore      35

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who is More in Touch With the Average Voter?

Bush      43%

Gore      41

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who is More Honest And Trustworthy?

Bush       47%

Gore       33

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who Better Understands Complex Issues?

Gore       45%

Bush       38

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 23-25

Who Share Your Values?

Bush       48%

Gore       39

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

COMPLETE TRACKING TREND ON HORSE RACE