CNN/Time poll: Bush holds edge

From Keating Holland/CNN

October 27, 2000
Web posted at: 8:36 p.m. EDT (0036 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush holds a 49-to-43 percent edge over Democratic rival Al Gore in the latest CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday.

The poll of 2,060 adult Americans, including 1,076 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and is thus in essential agreement with a CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore. More important, both polls show the same snapshot of the current state of the presidential campaign: a solid advantage for Bush.

Although Bush has an edge in the presidential race, that has not trickled down to the congressional level. Forty-six percent of likely voters would currently vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district; 45 percent would currently pick the GOP candidate. One reason may be that some portion of voters would prefer a divided government.

If Bush became president, likely voters say they would prefer that the Democrats control Congress by a 49 percent-45 percent margin. But if Gore is elected, voters say they would rather have the GOP control Congress by a 50 percent-44 percent margin.

Bush's advantage on the presidential level appears to be based more on his personal appeal than on the issues. A bare majority of likely voters, 51 percent, say Bush agrees with them on issues they care about; 50 percent say that about Gore -- indicating that issues are a wash. But, most likely voters say that Bush will keep his promises and would bring needed change to government; most voters say that Gore will do neither.

One piece of bad news for Bush: The number of voters who think he would say anything to get elected president has jumped noticeably in the past two weeks. But even more voters think Gore would say anything to win the election.

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Likely voters' choice for president

Bush     49%

Gore     43

Nader     3

Buchanan  1

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Democrat       46%

Republican     45

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

If Gore wins, who would you rather see control Congress?

Republicans    50%

Democrats      44

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Democrats      49%

Republicans    45

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Likely voters' choice for president -- two-way race

Bush      50%

Gore      46 

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

            Yes     No


Now          87%    12%

Oct. 4-5     83     17

Sept. 6-7    77     21

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

President Choice

Easy       78%

Difficult  21

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Can be trusted to keep his promises:

                 Yes    No


Bush             53%   40%

Gore              46    49

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/TIME POLL

October 25-26

Would bring needed change:

                Yes    No


Bush             53%   41%

Gore             44    50

LIKELY VOTERS
Sampling error: +/-3% pts