Tracking poll: Bush leads Gore by 5 points, 2 days before election

From CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sunday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll shows GOP candidate Gov. George W. Bush maintaining his lead over Democratic Vice President Al Gore by 5 percentage points, in part because likely voters do not think Bush's 1976 driving under the influence arrest is relevant to his ability to serve as president.

According to the poll, 48 percent of all likely voters would choose Bush while 43 percent would pick Gore if the election were held today.

That represents no significant movement over the last few days -- although it is worth keeping in mind that previous elections have seen temporary poll shifts during the weekend before the election, most of which have faded by Election Day.

Only 9 percent of likely voters say Bush's arrest in 1976 has made them less likely to vote for him, and 77 percent say the arrest is not relevant to Bush's ability to serve as president. Sixteen percent say the arrest is relevant to Bush's ability to serve as president.

The poll showed Green Party presidential candidate and consumer advocate Ralph Nader at 4 percent, dropping 1 percentage point from Saturday's poll.

	RESOURCES
View all the results from the CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll

Reform Party candidate Patrick Buchanan registered at 1 percent in the poll, which was conducted from interviews with 2,733 likely voters from November 2 through 4.

Four percent said they were still undecided.

In past presidential races, the contest tightened as the candidate who was trailing suddenly received a burst of support in the days before the election -- only to see that support fade by Election Day.

Pollsters think that happened because voters are like a bride or groom just before a wedding -- having a few jitters and questioning whether they have made the best choice, before ultimately deciding that they were right in the first place.

Bear in mind that if the race tightens in the next 48 hours, it may mean some real movement toward Gore, but it may also be this temporary phenomenon.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

November 2-4

THREE-DAY AVERAGE

Likely voters'

choice for president


Bush      48 percent

Gore      43 percent

Nader      4 percent

Buchanan   1 percent

Undecided  4 percent


Sampling error: +/- 2 percentage points

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

October 30-November 4

SIX-DAY AVERAGE

Likely voters'

choice for president


Bush      47 percent

Gore      43 percent

Nader      4 percent

Buchanan   1 percent

Undecided  5 percent


Sampling error: +/-2 percentage points

POLL OF POLLS

                          Bush   Gore


CNN/USA Today/Gallup      48%    43%

ABC News                  49     45

Washington Post           48     46

NBC/Wall St. Journal      47     44

CBS News                  46     44

MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby       46     44


(no sampling error)