Control of House hinges on key races from Connecticut to California

Republicans defend narrowest margin since 1954

By Mike Ferullo/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Control of the U.S. House of Representatives will hinge on the outcome of a relatively small number of competitive races ranging across the entire country Tuesday and may not be decided until the next Congress is seated in January.

Since the Republican Party claimed a congressional majority in 1994, Democrats have successfully chipped away at the GOP margin. The Democrats picked up nine seats in 1996 and another five in 1998, when Republicans pursued the impeachment of President Clinton.

The House is currently split by the narrowest majority since the 83rd Congress (1953-55), which took place under President Eisenhower's first term. The Republicans lost their 221-213-1 majority during the 1954 mid-term elections.

Democrats are confident history will repeat itself this Tuesday. Less than a month ago, there seemed to be little question that the party, backed by an impressive war chest raised by the Democratic National Congressional Committee -- would capture at least a handful of seats, and quite possibly win back the House on Election Day.

The Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 13-seat margin over the Democrats in the House, 223-210, and two seats are held by independents.

Rep. Jim Traficant, D-Ohio, has promised to vote for current House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Illinois, regardless of which party is in control of the House.

The margin is somewhat deceptive because former Democratic Rep. Matthew Martinez defected to the Republicans after a primary loss in March. Because his Southern California district is solidly Democratic, most observers believe that the GOP will lose the seat on Election Day.

Another complication is expected to come from maverick Rep. Jim Traficant of Ohio, a Democrat who has promised to cast a vote for current House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Illinois, regardless of which party wins control in November. To offset that vote, Democrats will need to pick up seven seats for a razor-thin 218-217 majority.

The power of incumbency

While all 435 members of Congress are up for election November 7, only a handful of races are competitive. A number of districts have voted solidly Republican or Democratic for decades. Even in suburban areas with large numbers of classic "swing voters," incumbents have long taken advantage of greater name recognition and fund-raising abilities.

In 1998, just six out of 401 incumbents were defeated. The reason for Democratic optimism in 2000 is that a higher number of Republican seats are in play because of retirements on the GOP side. Of 34 open seats, 25 are currently Republican and nine are Democratic.

Democratic efforts to take back the House were also boosted after a successful national party convention in Los Angeles this summer. But the breeze that many candidates felt at their backs in September dissipated in October as a number of Republican contenders shook off the ill effects of bitter primary contests and focused their energies on the looming general election contest.

A number of vulnerable GOP incumbents and challengers moved up in the polls as the party's presidential nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, pulled ahead of Democratic rival Al Gore in most surveys. Another reason for the Republican rebound is the fact that many candidates have focused on Democratic issues, mimicking the "compassionate conservative" message sounded at the top of their ticket.

Rep. Jim Rogan, R-California, one of the House impeachment managers, is vulnerable in his race for re-election.

With no overarching issue dominating the political agenda this year, House campaigns have instead focused on a number of issues: Social Security, prescription drug coverage for Medicare seniors, education, gun laws, abortion and the environment.

The "character" issue has also played out in a number of races, including a handful of districts where Democrats set their sights on ousting the 13 impeachment managers, or prosecutors, during the 1998 impeachment saga. Rep. Jim Rogan of California is considered the most vulnerable of the group; most others are considered safe.

The battle for the House is so close it that will likely be won by inches, not miles -- and perhaps not until the parties elect a speaker of the House in January. It is conceivable that Democrats could fall one or two seats short of a majority, a scenario that would result in a frenzy of closed-door negotiations as party leaders line up support for their dueling agendas.

In any event, their will be plenty of nail-biting on both sides of the aisle on Election Night, particular with so many of the tight races being decided in California, where polls close at 8 p.m. PT (11 p.m EDT).

Early poll closings in Kentucky and Indiana

The polls in Indiana and Kentucky will have been closed for five hours when West Coast voters cast their final ballots. Key matchups in Indiana and Kentucky could provide an early glimpse of how the nation is leaning on Election Night.

Republican John Hostettler faces the toughest race of his career in Indiana's 8th Congressional District, where voters seemingly take pleasure in throwing incumbents out of office. Hostettler's Democratic challenger in the "Bloody Eighth" is Dr. Paul Perry, whose stances against abortion and gun control play well to the rural and conservative district.

Rep. Anne Northup, R-Kentucky, shown here, faces a challenge from Eleanor Jordan.

Republican Rep. Anne Northup faces an equally stiff challenge in Kentucky's 3rd District from Democratic challenger Eleanor Jordan, who has benefited from successful fund-raising efforts and a recent visit from President Clinton. Northrup's own fund-raising ability and savvy political skills have helped her hold onto the Democratic-leaning district since 1996.

Early in the campaign season, Democrats mounted a large-scale effort to knock off a handful of GOP seats in the presidential battleground state of Florida. However, late polling suggests that two, perhaps three will be up for grabs on Election Day.

The 8th District, located around Orlando in central Florida, features a hotly contested race to replace Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, who is seeking the state's open Senate seat. Democrat Linda Chapin, the Orange County Clerk of Courts, raised money throughout the year as Republicans locked horns in a bitter primary. The GOP nominated conservative attorney Ric Keller, has gained some momentum in recent weeks.

The 22nd District, a narrow 91-mile strip along the Atlantic Coast from Fort Lauderdale to Palm Beach, pits Democratic upstart Elaine Bloom against incumbent Republican Rep. Clay Shaw. Shaw may have stopped Bloom's momentum by highlighting that she was a board member of a drug company that may have engaged in price fixing. Bloom, who is Jewish, could benefit from enthusiasm for the Gore/Lieberman ticket among the district's large population of Jewish retirees.

A large turnout for Gore could spark an upset in favor of the Democrats in the Florida's 12th Congressional District, where Republican Adam Putnam, a 26-year-old state representative, holds a single-digit lead over Democrat Mike Stedem, a car dealer and community leader.

The East

Democrats have another upset opportunity in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Charles Taylor has been hounded by a much-publicized row with local property tax collectors. Once considered a sure bet, Taylor has lost ground to Democratic challenger Sam Niell, who has attacked his opponents record on delivering for seniors in this western, mountainous end of the state.

To the east, the 8th Congressional District features a rematch between Robin Hayes, the Republican incumbent and Democrat Mike Taylor, a Vietnam veteran with a doctorate in classical archaeology. Hayes, heir to a fortune earned in the region's textile industry, edged Taylor by less than 3,500 votes in 1998.

Rep. Jim Maloney, D-Connecticut, again faces his 1998 challenger, Mark Nielson.

Moving up the coast, Connecticut's 5th Congressional District features a rematch between Democratic Rep. Jim Maloney and Republican challenger Mark Nielson. Maloney won the 1998 contest by just 2,343 votes, giving Republicans high hopes for 2000. Nielson has had Arizona Sen. John McCain as well as the GOP presidential nominee campaign for him, but Maloney may have the bigger celebrity boost with home state Sen. Joe Lieberman on the presidential ticket.

McCain returned to Connecticut last week to campaign for 2nd District challenger Rob Simmons, a former CIA employee. Recent polls give Simmons an outside chance of ousting Democratic Sam Gejdenson, regarded by some as a lackluster campaigner.

Neighboring New York features a hotly contested race to replace Long Island Rep. Rick Lazio in that state's 2nd Congressional District. Lazio is running for U.S. Senate, and Islip Town Clerk Joan Johnson is hoping to hold the Republican-leaning district against Democrat Steve Israel. Israel boasts more experience than his rival. If Johnson wins, she would become the first African-American female Republican in Congress.

Across the Hudson, New Jersey's 12th Congressional District is home to a close race between freshman Democratic Rep. Rush Holt and former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who gave up the seat in 1996 to run for the U.S. Senate. Zimmer spend a lot of time and money defeating primary rival Mike Pappas, another former congressmen, but enjoys greater name recognition than Holt in the moderate GOP district.

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Both parties had nasty primaries in New Jersey's 7th District, where Republican Mike Ferguson and Democrat Maryanne Connelly are vying to replace incumbent GOP Rep. Bob Franks, who is running for U.S. Senate. Democrats are vying for a pick-up in this central Garden State district.

Pennsylvania hosts a couple of hotly contested races. The blue-collar 4th Congressional District features a duel between Democrat Terry Van Horne and Republican Melissa Hart, a pair of ambitious state legislators. Polling indicates a down-to-the-wire race in the Democratic-leaning district.

The 10th Congressional District features a rematch between Rep. Don Sherwood, a Republican freshman, and Democratic challenger Pat Casey, son of the late Gov. Robert Casey. Casey has made inroads by attacking Sherwood on prescription drugs and education.

There is the potential for a GOP upset in the Keystone State's 13th Congressional District, where freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel faces a strong challenge from moderate GOP candidate Stewart Greenleaf.

The Midwest

Republican retirements in Ohio and Illinois have also given Democrats reason for optimism. Ohio Rep. John Kasich, a retiring Republican in the state's 12th Congressional District, is hoping his protégé, state Rep. Pat Tiberi, can hold the seat against Maryellen O' Shaughnessy, who benefits from a famous political name in the Columbus area.

A nasty Republican primary in neighboring Illinois may have damaged the election prospects of nominee Mark Kirk, a former aide to retiring Rep. John Porter in the state's 10th Congressional District. Although the district tilts moderate Republican, Democrat Lauren Beth Gash, a popular state representative, has matched her opponent in the polls.

Both parties have fielded strong contenders in Michigan's 8th Congressional District. Democratic state Rep. Dianne Byrum faces GOP State Sen. Mike Rogers. Outside groups have spent heavily on the seat, currently held by Rep. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who is running for the U.S. Senate.

Incumbent Republican Jay Dickey is vulnerable against challenger Mike Ross.

Republicans are poised to pick up a seat in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Bill Luther faces a rematch in former Marine Col. John Kline, a Republican. Kline, who carried the nuclear football for Presidents Carter and Reagan, never stopped running after his narrow 1998 defeat, and appears to have enough momentum to win this time around.

Democrats have one of their best chances to gain a seat in Arkansas' 4th Congressional District. Incumbent Republican Rep. Jay Dickey has consistently polled below 50 percent against challenger Mike Ross. The southern Arkansas district is traditionally Democratic and includes President Clinton's hometown of Hope.

But Republicans hope to counter such an outcome by taking a Democrat seat in neighboring Missouri's 6th Congressional District. Democrat Steve Danner is hoping to replace his mother, retiring Rep. Pat Danner, but trails in both the polls and fund-raising against GOP contender Sam Graves.

Coattails in Texas?

Republicans are hoping that Bush's presidential coattails could stir up an upset victory in Texas against incumbent Democratic Rep. Ken Bentsen. Republican challenger Phil Sudan poured enough money into the 25th Congressional District race for the Democratic National Congressional Committee to respond in kind on Bentsen's behalf.

GOP Rep. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma is self-term-limited.

In Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, Republican Rep. Tom Coburn is abiding by his self-imposed three-term limits, giving Democrats a chance to retake a district that traditionally leans Democratic. Democratic attorney Brad Carson holds a slight lead over auto dealer Andy Ewing heading into Tuesday's showdown.

Democrats were able to recruit strong contenders for open House seats in traditionally Republican territory: the western states of Utah and Montana. Primary voters in Utah's 2nd Congressional District dumped incumbent GOP Rep. Merrill Cook in favor businessman Derek Smith. The Democrats have a viable winner in Jim Matheson, the son of a popular former governor.

The Democrats fielded statewide office holder Nancy Keenan for Montana's at-large House race. Keenan, state superintendent of education, faces former Lieutenant Gov. Dennis Rehbreg, who has tried to paint Keenan as too liberal for the Big Sky State. Both sides claim the edge in this likely down-to-the wire race.

Dems poised for pick ups in California

California will likely be the grand prize in the battle for control of the House, with Democratic efforts focused on knocking off four GOP office holders in the Golden State.

The most vulnerable California Republican is former House impeachment manager Jim Rogan, who trails state Sen. Adam Schiff in the state's 27th Congressional District. Schiff received more votes than Rogan in the state's open March primary, and the district has become increasingly Democratic as a result of demographic changes in recent months.

Rep. Steve Kuykendall, R-California, faces former Rep. Jane Harman, who gave up the seat to run for governor in 1998.

The Democrats are also slightly ahead in the state's 15th Congressional District, centered around Santa Cruz. Moderate Republican Jim Cunneen faces labor union loyalist Mike Honda in a district where Clinton beat GOP presidential challenger Bob Dole by nearly 20 points in 1996.

Republicans have better chances defending the 36th and 49th districts down the Pacific Coast. The 36th Congressional District pits freshman Rep. Steve Kuykendall against former three-term Democratic Rep. Jane Harman, who gave up the seat to run for governor in 1998. The seat tilts Republican, but Harman's name recognition and personal wealth make her a formidable contender.

In San Diego, Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray fits the 49th Congressional District well, but has faced a tough campaigner in Democratic state Rep. Susan Davis. Although Bilbray holds the edge heading toward Election Day, it remains unclear how voters will react to a minor scandal regarding the financing of a recent trip the congressman and his wife took to Australia.