Bill Schneider: Are the election odds stacked against Gore?

From CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Which side has the partisan advantage in the election dispute in Florida?

At the moment, the Democrats. The Florida Supreme Court has six Democrats and one independent -- no Republicans. But if Vice President Al Gore prevails and the court orders the hand-counted ballots included, Democrats will find the deck stacked against them after that. They may run into trouble In the other branches of Florida's state government, for instance.

Republicans have a partisan advantage in Florida's state government

Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, a Republican and a Bush supporter, has to certify the final vote.

Federal law also provides that if there is a conflict between two slates of electors, the electors certified by the governor shall be accepted. He, too, is a Republican: Jeb Bush.

Notice also that both houses of the Florida state legislature are controlled by Republicans. That could make a difference, too, because of an obscure provision of federal law.

It says that if a state's electors have not been appointed by December 12 "the electors may be appointed on a subsequent day in such a manner as the legislature of such state may direct."

It's never been done before, but the Republican speaker-elect in Florida says he is prepared to see the Florida legislature "play a role, should it become necessary." He claims the state legislature has as much right to name the next president as the state Supreme Court. More, in fact, given the federal statute.

Even if, after the hand recounts, Gore wins, that is not necessarily the end of it.

The electoral vote is cast in the state capitals on December 18, but it has to be counted by a joint session of Congress on January 5. Congressional Republicans are reported to be furious over what they regard as Gore's efforts to steal the election.

Do they have the power to block his election? Maybe.

Federal law provides that "the two houses [of Congress] concurrently may reject the vote or votes, where they agree that such vote or votes have not been so regularly given by electors."

In other words, if Congress finds "irregularities" in the Florida electoral vote, it can refuse to count Florida's votes. Both houses of Congress would have to make that decision, by majority vote.

If Congress votes not to count Florida's electoral votes, wouldn't Gore win? True, Gore is leading in the electoral vote outside of Florida.

The Constitution requires the winner to receive a majority of appointed electors. Without Florida, neither Gore nor Bush would have the required majority of 270 electoral votes.

The election would then go to the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. Republicans control 28 out of 50 state delegations in the House.

Even if he prevails, Gore's election might not be accepted by Republicans.

We can see it in the polls. A quarter of Gore supporters say they would refuse to accept Bush as the legitimate president if he is declared the winner. But, over 40 percent of Bush supporters say they would refuse to accept Gore.

It looks like Gore would have more of a legitimacy problem than Bush -- even though Gore is leading in the total nationwide popular vote.