Chinese saber-rattling heightens tensions in Taiwan

Campaign against candidate may get him elected president

March 17, 2000
Web posted at: 3:03 AM HKT (1903 GMT)

TAIPEI, Taiwan (CNN) -- The Taiwanese people were reacting angrily to the escalating rhetoric from mainland China on Thursday, a reaction that could make the candidate China most dislikes the next president of Taiwan.

Lee Teng-hui, 77, steps down in May after 12 years as president, and some people believe his Nationalist Party is in danger of losing its 51-year grip on power. The vote on Saturday will be Taiwan's second direct presidential election.

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Chen Shui-bian of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party was crisscrossing the island on Thursday, two days ahead of the election, as were the other two leading candidates, independent James Soong and Vice President Lien Chan. All three were running a tight race.

Because of his past support for Taiwan's independence, Chen is the chief target of China's saber-rattling threats to invade rather than risk a lengthy battle over reunification -- or the possibility that the island will declare independence.

China, which considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland, threatened last month in a policy white paper to attack Taiwan if it tries to drag its feet indefinitely over reunification negotiations. China and Taiwan split in 1949 amid a civil war.

But Chen has taken pains to soften his earlier pro-independence stance, promising not to declare Taiwan an independent state and proposing talks with Beijing.

"My pursuit of security and peace in the Taiwan Strait should enable Beijing, Washington and Tokyo to understand I am a person who can be trusted, a responsible mature new leader who does not want war," he said.

But on Wednesday, Chen urged voters to stand firm amid what he termed Beijing's "terror tactics," and he hardened his rhetoric against Beijing's efforts to reunify the island with China.

"We don't need China's leaders to appoint a president for us," he told an election rally.

Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji said Wednesday that Taiwan would never be allowed to declare independence, regardless of who wins the election.

And it's not just the Chinese who are using Chen's formerly pro-independence stance to cast doubts on his possible presidency.

"Only the (ruling Nationalist Party) has the resolution and the experience to manage cross-straits relations," said Vice President Lien.

Nationalist Party President Lee, however, himself drew China's ire last year when he declared that China and Taiwan were on equal state-to-state footing -- a position he backed away from as China's protests grew louder.

Public anxiety over the current rhetoric has triggered a series of sharp falls in the Taiwan stock exchange this week, prompting the government to dip into an emergency stabilization fund to reverse the decline.

Academician Xu Bodong, director of Taiwan Research at Beijing Lianhe University, fanned the discomfort, warning that China could swiftly invade the island if voters elect a pro-independence candidate.

"The timetable is in the hands of the mainland, even more so in the hands of Taiwan's new leader, and frankly speaking in the hands of Taiwan's voters," said Xu Bodong, director of Taiwan Research at Beijing Lianhe University.

"If they choose a leader who advocates Taiwan independence, this timetable may well not be a question of years, but of a few dozen hours," Xu added.

But Chen's support remains strong.

"He's certainly tough," said one potential voter. "But sometimes that's what you need. He's got a lot of guts."

Taiwan's president may need "guts" to face the mainland. Zhu, urging Taiwan's voters not to act "on impulse" and make a decision they will regret, said the Chinese people were ready to "shed blood" to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence.

Beijing Bureau Chief Rebecca MacKinnon and Hong Kong Bureau Chief Mike Chinoy contributed to this report.

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