NWS forecast leaves drought-prone states high and dry

Summer approaches, and with it comes the impact of drought on agriculture, wildfires and water supplies

May 24, 2000
Web posted at: 4:04 p.m. EDT (2004 GMT)

By Environmental News Network staff

The National Weather Service, which would rather not rain on anyone's parade, has good news and bad news for drought-prone areas of the United States.

The bright side of the NWS forecast for summer is that La Niña, the weather phenomenon responsible for delivering drought conditions to some parts of the nation for the past two years, is expected to fade in the next several months.

The bad news is that above-normal temperatures, which speed the evaporation of precipitation and soil moisture, are expected to keep drought-weary states dry for the rest of the spring and into summer.

The NWS forecast is part of the National Drought Policy Commission's report on the impact of drought in America.

"If we ever hope to lessen the blow of drought to the nation's farmers and other vital interests, the National Weather Service must continue to improve its forecasts and monitoring abilities of the meteorological ingredients that produce drought conditions," said Jack Kelly, director of the NWS.

The summer forecast calls for below-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures — a combination that will lead to more severe drought.

In its first drought forecast, released in March, the NWS predicted the hardest-hit areas would be southern Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.

Drought outlook: Areas at greatest risk as of May 15 are indicated in red

Meteorologists still expect severe to extreme drought conditions to persist in Florida, Georgia, central-western Texas, northern Arkansas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern and eastern Alabama and western South Carolina.

Severe drought conditions are also expected in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana and Illinois. The drought on the leeward areas of Hawaii will also persist, according to forecasters.

Only monsoon rains predicted for July may bring relief to New Mexico's parched landscape, which has already been consumed by 302,000 acres of fire since Jan. 1.

Even when substantial rains visit drought-prone states, hot weather will erase any benefits of the precipitation. In early May, areas near St. Louis, Missouri, were drenched by eight to 14 inches of rain, but high temperatures evaporated much of the precipitation not lost by runoff. Rainfall in Missouri for the year is still 11 inches shy of normal precipitation.

"Rains like these can't erase overnight what two years of La Niña and long-term drought helped to produce. These are major precipitation deficits," said Kelly. For states such as Louisiana and Georgia, recent high temperatures exacerbated drought conditions, and the summer forecast calls for more of the same.

With annual economic losses from drought hovering between $6 million and $8 billion, Kelly said drought forecasting will continue to remain at the top of his agency's priority list.

"We are going to continue to warn America ahead of time when and where drought conditions are expected," he said.

Copyright 1999, Environmental News Network, All Rights Reserved

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The U.S. Drought Monitor
NOAA's Drought Information Center
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
The National Weather Service

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