Scientists try to estimate earthquake aftershocks

September 11, 2000
Web posted at: 3:47 PM EDT (1947 GMT)

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- After decades of failed efforts to predict when and where earthquakes will occur, scientists in Northern Ireland are trying to do the next best thing -- estimate the probability of deadly aftershocks.

"In 30 years of looking for precursors (of earthquakes) there haven't been any that have been widely accepted by the scientific community," Sandy Steacy, a lecturer in geophysics at Ulster University, said on Monday.

Steacy told the British Association of Science conference that it would be more realistic to try to predict aftershocks -- the small earthquakes that follow large ones -- to help reduce loss of life.

"Short term probability assessment, at least in terms of aftershocks, may be possible," she told a news conference.

Steacy and her colleagues are leading a European consortium involving scientists from France, Italy, Greece, Ireland and the Czech Republic to predict the likely locations of aftershocks.

"Large aftershocks can cause significant damage and loss of life. The largest aftershock to the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in Turkey), for example, killed hundreds of people, injured thousands, and damaged or destroyed thousands of buildings," she explained.

The three-year project funded by the European Commission will use a method called the "Coulomb stress technique" to estimate where aftershocks will occur.

"If the Couloumb stress technique is found to be a reliable and feasible method of estimating spatial aftershock probabilities, it could lead to a significant reduction in lost lives due to large aftershocks," Steacy added.

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