Global e-commerce needs more time, study finds

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February 25, 2000
Web posted at: 8:27 a.m. EST (1327 GMT)

by Christine M. Campbell

(IDG) -- While global e-commerce will grow rapidly in the next decade, the vast majority of transactions will continue to occur in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, according to a study released Tuesday by Computer Economics.

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E-commerce in those regions will comprise 94 percent of all worldwide transactions this year, according to a study from the market researcher, and the market is expected to grow from $2.9 trillion this year to $9.5 trillion by 2003. At the end of that three-year period, transactions in those regions still will account for a whopping 93 percent of the worldwide total, the study found.

At least another decade -- and a lot of funding -- is needed before e-commerce will grow globally, according to Michael Erbschloe, vice president of research at Computer Economics.

"Africa, South America, and parts of Asia are behind because the infrastructure hasn't been built out, and the costs are very high for people to get connected [to the Internet]," Erbschloe said in an interview Wednesday.

By 2003, business-to-consumer transactions in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific will account for 99.9 percent of all business-to-consumer transactions worldwide, he said. Although the business-to-business market is expected to be slightly more open, Erbschloe cautions that online marketers should be wary of targeting their products to individual consumers to build market shares in other regions that are less likely to experience high growth.

The research firm collected information from its client base and from the U.S. Departments of State and Commerce, and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Erbschloe said. Researchers considered four trends: Internet usage by country and area, international business relations and trade, types of trade, and "the likelihood of favorable retribution for supply-chain applications," Erbschloe said.

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Computer Economics

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