Dumbing down Linux

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April 7, 2000
Web posted at: 9:50 a.m. EDT (1350 GMT)

by Joe Barr

(IDG) -- This week I want to talk about what the desktop scene will be like a few years down the road. There are two controversies raging today that touch on that topic: the dumbing down of Linux and life after the end of the Microsoft monopoly. Both are important subjects in their own right, but their real significance comes from the role they will play in shaping the future.

My recent column on the WordPerfect Office 2000 for Linux beta 2 resulted in a lot of mail. Several of those responses, as well as some posts in the forum, were opposed to the idea of Linux becoming more like Windows. Specifically, some of you mentioned the need to reboot after installing WPO 2000 and the look and feel of the applications.

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I can understand the unhappiness. There are a lot of values that I would not want Linux to lose as it moves to a more central position on the world's desktops. But I don't believe that is really what is happening with the Corel products or others like them. It is simply that those offerings are targeting a specific audience: those who are using Windows today.

My response to such complaints comes in two parts. First, do we want to see Linux continue to grow market share on the desktop as well as in the server? If the answer is yes, then I suggest that it can only grow as dumbed down versions and applications that today's Windows users can install and use without feeling unduly intimidated. If the answer is no, then a lot of the work being done today to make Linux easier to use can come to a screeching halt.

Assuming the answer to the first part is yes, then I will move on to my next point. I don't want to see Linux become like Windows either. I don't want to give up the speed, robustness, and flexibility that were my primary motivations to try Linux in the first place. And I certainly don't want to see it become a closed, proprietary product. But making applications familiar to Windows users doesn't necessarily mean Linux will become like Windows in any of those ways.

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Have faith in Linux and the Linux community. Remember that the GUI is only X-deep. The kernel is not being sacrificed in the bargain. And don't forget that Linux is infinitely configurable. So if Corel and other vendors are offering Linux (Debian GNU/Linux at that!) with training wheels, or Linux with excess eye candy, or some other flavor of Linux for Windows, relax. You don't have to use it, my dweebs, so chill.

Linux is absolutely not a "one size fits all" solution. If you are a CLI kind of gal who does her kernel hacking like Linus with a lot of terminal sessions going on, you can still do that no matter what sort of bait is thrown out to catch those who run away screaming at the first sign of a C:> prompt. If you prefer Gnumeric to Quattro Pro, you still have the absolute freedom to use it, no matter what Uncle Ted decides to do.

Now, it is entirely possible that Uncle Ted and Aunt Gladys in Cleveland might come to Linux in a Windows outfit and later learn enough about what's going on beneath the surface to feel safe enough to take off the training wheels. But not everyone, sadly, is going to become a dweeb. Mass acceptance at the consumer level means that many won't care about what goes on beneath the surface -- not today, not next week, not next year.

Motivating the aunt and uncle segment of the market to make the move to Linux depends upon the ability of developers and distributions to do the kinds of things that Corel and others are doing: making the environment appear familiar and safe. And the more of those folk who come into the Linux fold, the more mainstream applications we will see ported from Windows to Linux.

One example crossed my desk this morning in the form of a press release from Corel. It is adding two apps to the WPO 2000 product, both for Windows and Linux. One does project management and the other diagrams flow charts and the like. Those types of apps are the bread and butter of PHMs and getting them onboard with Linux is something that'll have to happen sooner or later if we are truly on the road to world domination.

I'll use Corel as an example again: it is recognized as having one of the easiest installs of any Linux distribution. Do you know what version of Linux forms the heart of the Corel distribution? It's Debian GNU/Linux. And Debian has the rep of being one of the most difficult and unforgiving of installs. My guess is that the association of Corel and Debian will at the very least triple the number of Debian GNU/Linux users. My dweebs, that is goodness.

After the fall

Unless you've been on a Bataan-style implementation recently, you've seen the headlines about the guilty verdict in the Microsoft antitrust case. I'm not going to speculate on what will happen as the case works its way through the appeals process, but given the evidence and the tenacity of the DOJ, I'm quite certain that the final outcome will end Microsoft's unregulated monopoly.

Either it will be broken up or restructured in such a way that no single surviving entity will hold monopoly power, or it will be regulated to prevent future abuses of power. Microsoft will no longer, for example, be able to threaten the world's largest PC maker with the Redmondian death penalty if it dares to choose a course of action not blessed by King Bill.

So much for the case. What I'm concerned about is life afterward. What will true competition in the marketplace mean to Linux? First, Microsoft's portion of the market will become a slice rather than the whole pie. It won't happen overnight, but all those fringe operating systems will begin to grow market share. I guess in the desktop space, we still need to count Linux in the same group as OS/2 and BeOS.

Those OSs will grow market share because the major OEMs will begin to preload them. I've asked IBM and Compaq why they are not preloading Linux on their machines today. I've asked them if their contracts with Microsoft preclude their doing so. They both told me that the answer to the second question is no, and that's probably true. Otherwise, we would have seen headlines during the trial about another of Microsoft's exclusionary tactics.

But on the first question, both waffled, claiming their downstream partners were better positioned to provide Linux to their customers than they were. Sorry, but I don't buy it. I think the fear of angering Microsoft holds them back.

Microsoft is free to negotiate any kind of deal to sell Windows to the OEMs. IBM's refusal to murder OS/2, for example, cost it dearly. It was not given a license to preload Windows 95 until the eve of the launch, which put it months behind the competition. Forget Internet time. Those crucial months cost IBM a fortune. The fear of that same kind of reprisal today keeps OEMs from preloading Linux and the others for the mass market.

Yes, I know. Dell is offering Linux on desktops and laptops. But Dell has a special relationship with Microsoft. Michael Dell flew to Washington to defend Gates before the US Senate. With a trusted OEM preloading Linux in a limited way, Microsoft can point to it and continue to deny the existence of a monopoly. Dell's Linux offerings are much more a special order thing than a mainstream play.

When consumers across the country and around the world can walk into their favorite PC retail store and see top-name PC brands running OS/2, BeOS, and Linux, as well as Windows, sales will increase. Remove the fear factor that most consumers feel when they consider installing an OS themselves, and more of them will try it.

How will Linux fare in such a postmonopoly world? I think Linux will achieve a 25 percent to 50 percent market share on desktops, but I don't think Linux will ever become the dominant OS in that market. I know it's heresy to say that, but that's what I believe. On servers, I think the Linux share will be much larger, but even there, it will stop short of world domination.

As a matter of fact, I don't believe we will ever see a desktop OS achieve anything close to a 90 percent market share again. That's a good thing, too, as the resulting competition will bring better products to market at lower prices. But I do think Windows will eventually be replaced as the dominant desktop OS by an open source offering. Perhaps it will even be replaced by a hybrid based on a familiar GUI running atop the GNU/Linux kernel.

Joe Barr is a contributing editor at LinuxWorld and a recovering programmer. In addition to writing for LinuxWorld and The Dweebspeak Primer, he is currently working with Nicholas Petreley on a Linux documentation project called . Visit Joe's ITworld.com forum on Linux desktops.

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