Analysis: Internet lessons for Campaign 2004

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by Aaron Pressman

(IDG) -- If there still is any doubt about the Internet's power to change politics, consider this: As Vice President Al Gore's motorcade took him to a Nashville plaza to deliver his concession speech early Wednesday morning, an aide monitoring a Florida elections Web site noticed that Texas Gov. George W. Bush's lead had suddenly shrunk to a few thousand votes in the Sunshine State. Gore abandoned his planned speech and called Bush to withdraw his concession. Without the Web, the electoral crisis surrounding the Florida vote might not have materialized.

Despite such dramatic developments, the Internet did not fundamentally change presidential campaigns the way television did in the 1960 race. But political professionals looking to the next election are already drawing lessons from the presidential candidates' first significant use of online fundraising, e-mail and Web sites to reach voters.

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This election, the most novel uses of the Internet barely got off the ground. Online fundraising accounted for only about $50 million of the $3 billion spent during the 2000 election season, according to Phil Noble, head of PoliticsOnline, a Net fundraising service.

"That's only going to skyrocket in the future as we begin to see richer communications and video e-mails in pitches," says Noble.

The low cost of online fundraising will likely give grassroots movements a greater voice in coming elections. This year Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader raised $1 million online, and Berkeley, Calif.-based MoveOn.org, a political action committee, collected nearly $2 million through e-mail appeals.

E-mail played a more significant role in getting out the vote. The political parties collected hundreds of thousands of e-mail addresses, which will be used in future campaigns. "As a campaigning tool, e-mail is going to be what I would consider a tactical nuclear weapon in the future," says Larry Purpuro, deputy chief of staff of the Republican National Committee.

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But when it comes to political advertising, TV still reigns. The campaigns spent only token amounts buying banner ads on Web sites. That reflected many consultants' "old media" bias as well as television's growing ability to target ads - one of the Internet's key selling points. Digital editing of ads allowed the campaigns to quickly create tailor-made spots for different TV markets.

Overall, the presidential candidates' spending on traditional media dwarfed their Internet efforts. Republicans said they spent about $5.7 million this year on their online campaign from a $184 million war chest. Democrats, who raised $133 million for Gore, declined to reveal their online spending.

"The evolution of the Internet and politics is going to happen a lot slower than people expect," says Jonah Seiger, co-founder of the consulting firm Mindshare Internet Campaigns.

That's bad news for political information sites like Politics.com, which counted on political advertising that never materialized and now face closings and consolidation. The New York-based site is selling its domain name and might shut down. Grassroots.com didn't even wait for Election Day to announce it will reinvent itself as a service for political candidates.

Perhaps the biggest lesson from Campaign 2000 is that the Internet will change politics in ways entirely unforeseen and beyond the control of the political establishment. As the campaign ended, a raft of citizen-created vote-swapping sites went online to let Nader supporters in swing states trade their votes with Gore supporters in states where the outcome was not in doubt. This voter-to-voter challenge to the Electoral College is "really the Napster of the campaign," remarks PoliticsOnline's Noble.

Already the turmoil surrounding the presidential vote count in Florida has energized advocates of a nascent Internet political phenomenon that could well gain prominence in the 2004 election - online voting.

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Presidential election recount questions spark new court battles
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Tight election puts Electoral College under microscope
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55 percent of Americans consider election impasse serious
November 11, 2000
Courts may determine whether election satisfied 'will of the voters'
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Tailspin
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'Too close to call,' but Internet economy wins
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Security considerations for e-voting
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Governing through gridlock
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Voter databases in disarray in many states
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Critical Florida votes cast online
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The e-voting cliffhanger
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PoliticsOnline

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