United customers will return for frequent-flier miles, experts say

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NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Although travelers on United Airlines are angry now at the scads of cancellations and hours spent waiting for flights during a labor dispute with pilots, most will come running back at offers of frequent flier miles, travel experts said.

"I don't expect United to lose that many travelers," said Randy Peterson, editor of InsideFlyer magazine. A frequent airline traveler himself, Peterson spends a lot of time with frequent fliers.

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"Go back and look at what happened to US Airways after their almost-strike," Peterson said. "They came out with double miles for almost everybody for a while there. I'm sure the Mileage Plus offices of United are blazing at night."

The airline's pilots have refused to work overtime to protest limited progress in contract talks, leading to unusually high levels of cancellations and delays.

Business travelers, who often hold refundable tickets, may be switching airlines now, but Peterson said they are likely to return when United is running a higher rate of completed flights and the bad taste is washed away with mileage perks.

"These miles generally aren't given away to just anybody, except at the front counter when you've got somebody yelling at you," Peterson said. "Later they're usually given away to the high-end customers."

While August is a peak vacation travel period, it is a slow month for business travel, so many of the travelers irked by United's service problems may not even consider flying again for months, Peterson said. By that time, "their feelings will dissipate," he added.

Casual travelers are generally less loyal than business travelers and frequent leisure travelers who have more invested in terms of frequent flier miles.

"As long as people are hooked on these frequent-flier programs -- and they are hooked -- that's all it takes," said Terry Trippler, an airline travel expert with OneTravel.com. "They'll fall over one another to get on board."

Trippler said that as a travel agent, he used to get frustrated when travelers would book higher fares in order to accumulate miles. Many people also carry credit cards that earn additional miles.

"We have seen people stop the clerk and say 'No, I have to use my WorldPerks Visa (which accumulates miles on Northwest Airlines), and we're talking about a $25 purchase," he said.

American Airlines, which introduced the first frequent-flier loyalty program in 1981, has the most-subscribed program, AAdvantage, with about 38 million members.

United has about 30 million members in its Mileage Plus program, while No. 3 U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines has about 27 million in its SkyMiles program.

United is the largest airline in the world, slightly bigger than American, and Peterson credits the carrier as having the best international alliance. It dominates its Denver hub, and has close to 50 percent shares of scheduled seats in Chicago, San Francisco and Washington Dulles.

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