$100 million test failure knocks missile shield program off fast track

The target missile rises into the sky from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California

Problem that made missile bang go bust was 'not something we worried about,' official says

July 8, 2000
Web posted at: 12:20 p.m. EDT (1620 GMT)

In this story: Three tests: Two failures, one success 'More engineering work to do' Goal to protect U.S. mainland Technological and strategic concerns Scientific opposition RELATED STORIES, SITES

From staff and wire reports

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government's plan to deploy a missile defense system by 2005 was set back Saturday morning when an interceptor "kill vehicle" designed to hit a dummy warhead failed to separate from its booster rocket -- a failure scientists had not anticipated, the director of the Missile Defense Office said.

"It wasn't even on my list," Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish said. "We had good confidence in the reliability of this. It's worked very well before. And the kill vehicle not separating is not something we worried about."

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The White House said Saturday, however, that it is "too early" to determine what impact, if any, the failure will have on the missile program.

"We should avoid the instant analysis," said P.J. Crowley, National Security Council spokesman, who said it will take "some time' for Pentagon officials to determine the "ramifications" of the failure.

The foiled $100 million tryout means that the Pentagon did not gather the information it needs to help President Bill Clinton decide whether to begin building the $30 billion-plus missile shield.

"I would say we didn't get the data we had hoped to have," Undersecretary of Defense Jacques Gansler said. "The question of whether it's an absolute need or not is one that the secretary (of defense) and the president will be deciding."

This was the third test of the proposed anti-missile system. A test in October 1999 was successful, but a subsequent test in January also failed.

The White House indicated it will await Secretary of Defense William Cohen's recommendation before making a decision about the program.

Despite the latest failure, it's possible the Pentagon could still recommend beginning work on radar on a remote Alaskan island for the system.

But this week's snafu is expected to fuel critics' fire. Opponents of the missile defense system argue that the technology remains unreliable and that the system's existence could promote international tensions.

Moscow and Beijing both fear that a mature and successful anti-missile system could eliminate the strategic threat of their own nuclear arsenals.

Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, explains Saturday in Washington the sequence of events in the failed missile test

During the test, a U.S. interceptor missile, or "kill vehicle," failed to separate from a booster rocket and hit a mock warhead in space, according to the head of the Pentagon's Ballistic Missile Defense Organization.

"What it tells me is we have more engineering work to do," Kadish told reporters.

The $100 million test first suffered a two-hour delay because of a glitch with a battery unit powering a telemetry device aboard a modified Minuteman II intercontinental ballistic missile. That target missile was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

A few minutes later, the interceptor missile was launched from Kwajalein atoll in the Pacific. The interceptor carries the kill vehicle -- meant to separate from its carrier rocket, crash into an incoming dummy warhead and destroy it.

The crash was expected to take place about 30 minutes after the 12:18 a.m. launch of the target. But the kill vehicle failed to detach and never activated its sensors to hunt for the approaching dummy warhead.

The interceptor passed harmlessly by the target, and few of the critical technologies of missile defense were put to the test.

At the Pentagon, anxious officials watched in a secure command center. Within minutes, Kadish got the bad news. "Our radar says we did not get the kill vehicle separation," he said.

Officials were especially disappointed that the failure occurred before any of the crucial systems could be tested. The problem, they believe, was a substitute booster rocket that is to be replaced after a few more tests.

There was another failure: A balloon decoy on the target missile didn't inflate.

Defense officials did report one small success: the X-band radar that is designed to see into space and tell the difference between warheads and decoys worked fine. That's how engineers knew the decoy balloon didn't inflate.

The $30 billion missile defense system, mandated by Congress to be put into effect when technically possible, would provide for up to 100 interceptors based in Alaska. A broader $60 billion system under consideration would allow for as many as 250 interceptors and a second site in North Dakota.

The goal of the missile defense system, the Pentagon said, is to protect the U.S. mainland from missiles that might be developed by nations such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq.

The U.S. military has described the strategy as "trying to hit a bullet with a bullet."

Pentagon officials are still working on cost estimates for a national missile defense program. Most recent estimates, which call for 100 missile interceptors at a single site -- in Alaska -- place the cost at $36 billion for 20 years.

The General Accounting Office, the auditing arm of Congress, estimates the program will cost $60 billion if -- as many missile defense proponents urge -- the system is expanded to two sites, each with 100 interceptors.

An independent panel of retired military officers and weapons experts told the Pentagon in a report last month that it believes missile defense can be built, but the Pentagon may not be able to have a reliable system in place by 2005, the target date.

The date is significant because the CIA has said it believes North Korea could have a long-range missile capable of reaching U.S. soil within five years.

Anthony Cordesman, a defense strategist at the private Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview after Saturday's test that the failure will mean a delay in the Pentagon's fast-track timetable for building a national missile defense.

"Logically, you do regroup after something like this and you don't go forward with the existing schedule," Cordesman said, although he added that pressure from Congress might compel the Pentagon to go ahead.

Many critics say the technology is not feasible and that the Pentagon's testing methods are fatally flawed. Other critics say that even if it worked, the weapon would not be worth the international outcry against it -- most notably Russia's threat to unravel the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which the United States acknowledges the system violates.

Vladimir Yakovlev, the head of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces, was quoted by the Russian Interfax news agency Friday as saying the tests "are the first step toward global nuclear instability."

A U.S. missile defense system, he said, would "lead directly to nuclear anarchy."

Leaders of Germany and Italy have said they fear the U.S. missile defense shield would spark a new arms race.

CNN National Security Producer Chris Plante, CNN military affairs correspondent Jamie McIntyre, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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U.S. Department of Defense
Ballistic Missile Defense Organization
National Missile Defense
Greenpeace
Vandenburg Air Force Base
SpaceCom -- United States Space Command
Union of Concerned Scientists

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