Fractious Zanzibar holds key to Tanzanian election

ZANZIBAR, Tanzania (Reuters) -- Tanzanians on Sunday hold their first election without founding father Julius Nyerere -- and many say it could spell the end of the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar that he considered one of his greatest achievements.

Nyerere, who died last year, brought mainland Tanganyika to independence in 1961 and three years later united it with the Zanzibar islands.

Although Benjamin Mkapa of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is expected to be returned on Sunday as leader of the Tanzanian union, the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) is confident of winning the presidency in semi-autonomous Zanzibar.

The CUF also expects to win a majority in the Zanzibar House of Representatives and dent CCM's majority on the mainland.

If that happens, analysts and diplomats believe the CUF will use its clout to seek greater independence for the islands.

Zanzibar is rich in tourist earnings as well as spice production, and many residents believe the mainland has used it as a cash cow over the years.

But talk of independence is treasonable and 18 CUF members have been held on treason charges for over three years.

The CUF believes it was cheated out of victory in Zanzibar in the last election in 1995 when Seif Shariff Hamad polled 49.8 percent of the vote against 50.2 for the CCM's Salim Amour.

Many observers and monitors agreed the poll might have been rigged. But Commonwealth mediation persuaded the CUF to accept the result in exchange for reforms in the electoral commission and in voting rules this time around.

The CUF says those changes have not been forthcoming. It has already accused the CUF of stuffing voter registration lists by "importing" thousands of mainlanders and foreigners.

It is suspicious, too, of the huge numbers of extra military and police that authorities have deployed in Zanzibar to quell any potential trouble in the days ahead.

"There have been flaws in the system," Hamad told reporters on Friday. "But even so we can win. It depends on the extent."

Privately diplomats and analysts say recent events in Yugoslavia and Ivory Coast -- where spontaneous popular rejections of rigged election results led to them being overturned -- could well figure this time around.

"The place is no longer in a vacuum. People hear things going on in the rest of the world and it is bound to make them think," said one European Union diplomat.

"If CCM wins narrowly and the electorate don't believe it was fair, I think we can expect some sort of reaction."

The CUF draws its support mainly from Muslims, many of Arab origin from the days when Zanzibar was a key slaving centre. At midday prayers on Friday it was clear it had loyal support.

"Every Muslim will vote for the CUF and therefore the CUF must win here," said Abu Sheik, an elder at the main mosque in the old quarter of the main island.

On that basis it would win the majority of the 400,000 votes expected to be cast from a population of around 800,000.

But the CCM is still likely to sweep the election on the mainland, where around 10 million people are expected to vote.

Mkapa, a pupil of Nyerere's, won praise abroad for a first term in which he followed stringent economic restructuring along lines suggested by international donors and aid groups.

The reforms won Tanzania massive debt relief but proved less popular among a population that enjoyed years of controlled prices under Nyerere's failed brand of socialism, or "Ujamaa."

Nevertheless, a fractured opposition on the mainland means the CCM, which only had to contest multi-party elections for the first time in 1995, has the apparatus to ensure victory.

Three candidates are standing against Mkapa for the union presidency, but none is expected to make a significant showing.

Zanzibar has only two candidates -- Hamad and the CCM's Amani Abeid Karume, the son of Zanzibar's first president.

Copyright 2000 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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