Ghana braces for life after Rawlings

ACCRA, Ghana (Reuters) -- Not long after returning to power with his second military coup in 1981, Ghana's Jerry John Rawlings gave his personal recipe for good governance.

"Don't ask me what my economic policy or my ideology is, but I know when my stomach is empty," he told foreign reporters in 1982.

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Nearly 20 years on, the former flight-lieutenant with a Scottish father and a passing resemblance to Che Guevara, the Argentine-born hero of the Cuban revolution, is due to stand down as president, leaving Ghanaians to wonder what life after Rawlings will be like.

Whoever wins Thursday's presidential elections, even Rawlings' staunchest critics concede that it is the end of a remarkable era for the West African nation.

If, according to a constitutional two-term limit, he steps down as promised, he will join a restricted club of African leaders who have handed over power peacefully at the end of their mandate.

Rawlings's legacy is mixed. The once-radical 53-year old bequeaths to his people the system of multi-party politics that he himself overthrew with his military coup on New Year's Eve in 1981.

Under his rule, this country of 18 million people has known the longest period of political stability and economic growth since independence from Britain in 1957.

His structural economic reforms mean Ghana has been often cited as a model for developing countries by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Some analysts challenge whether this is really merited but fewer stomachs are empty, even though the economy has slumped in the past year under falling cocoa and gold prices, Ghana's chief exports.

Critics, however, cite widespread early human rights abuses and say his rule was Ghana's most repressive era since independence, denouncing killings and so-called people's defense committees, though things have improved in recent years.

They also blame deep-rooted state corruption and lack of foresight in diversifying the export base for economic problems.

When Rawlings first took power, aged 32, two weeks before promised elections in 1979 as head of the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council, he ordered the public execution of three former military heads of state.

Yet to everyone's amazement, he handed over power three months later as promised to the winner of the parliamentary elections, the late Dr Hilla Limann.

But two years later he was back in the saddle, overthrowing Limann and basking in huge personal popularity. Ghanaians at this time translated his two initials "JJ" into Junior Jesus.

Faced with a crumbling economy and widespread poverty, he dropped his Marxist rhetoric and airman's overalls and turned to the World Bank and the IMF for help.

Since 1985, when he signed on to structural adjustment, annual GDP growth has averaged five percent and inflation has dropped, though in October it still topped 26 percent year-on-year.

Since the return to constitutional rule and multi-party politics in 1992, the media have been freed. There are dozens of private FM radio stations and scores of newspapers, many of which do not mask their criticism of Rawlings.

On the diplomatic front, Rawlings built a close relationship with Libya's Moammar Gadhafi and Nigeria's late dictator Sani Abacha and also played host to U.S. President Bill Clinton and Britain's Queen Elizabeth.

"Rawlings has been good to Ghana," Valerie Sackey, a long-time presidential aide, told Reuters. "Without him this country would be in a horrendous state."

Others are more critical.

"Rawlings has been the best successor to the colonialists," says Yao Graham, co-ordinator of Third World Network, a local non-governmental organization.

"The fact that routine development projects are touted as landmarks is a sign of this failure."

The presidential and parliamentary elections are likely to turn into a referendum on the Rawlings years.

Vice-President John Atta Mills, of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), and John Kufuor of the opposition National People's Party (NPP), are the main presidential rivals.

But there are question marks over whether Ghana's civilian institutions can fill the void Rawlings will leave. By general consensus Mills and Kufuor lack charisma. Most analysts think a second round of voting will be needed.

"Whoever takes over, the aura of Rawlings will loom large on the political landscape for a period after he leaves office," said an editorial in the Accra Mail earlier this year.

Unease is compounded by uncertainty over what Rawlings, who remains NDC life chairman, will do after leaving office.

"With hindsight, Rawlings out of the Castle (presidential palace) is a more frightening thought to behold for Ghana's body politic than his continued stay," the Accra Mail wrote.

"Whichever side you are in the political divide, you will have to reckon with the Rawlings factor."

The man himself has said his party will respect the election results but has given few clues on what he might do next.

In a recent speech, he was quoted as saying that the constitution which rules that his time is up "is not a Bible."

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