Zimbabwe's Mugabe faces political test

HARARE, Zimbabwe (Reuters) -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe faces the biggest test of his political life as his ZANU-PF party begins a three-day meeting to decide whether to risk another election with its increasingly unpopular leader.

Mugabe's lieutenants are adamant that he will stay, but analysts warn the party is doomed if the former guerrilla leader takes it into presidential elections in 2002.

MESSAGE BOARD Share your thoughts on Zimbabwe's future

"I just can't see how they can seriously contest, let alone win, the presidential elections without a change of leadership," said University of Zimbabwe political analyst Emmanuel Magade.

ZANU-PF officially called the special congress to discuss the party's flagging fortunes after losing a referendum on a draft constitution in February and only narrowly winning parliamentary polls in June after 20 years in power.

But many ZANU-PF members have said privately that the meeting, which began with the registration of delegates on Wednesday, should focus on replacing Mugabe, who is expected to deliver a fiery defence of his leadership on Thursday.

Analysts say the 76-year-old Mugabe has tried to outflank his rivals by purging ZANU-PF provincial executives suspected of plotting to oust him. They say he has also used a well-developed patronage system to secure support at the congress.

"The succession question is only an issue being raised by those who want to weaken our party, and we are not going to adopt their agenda," ZANU-PF administration secretary Didymus Mutasa told Reuters.

"President Mugabe is a strong and principled man who has led the party with distinction for many years and we are going to affirm our faith in his leadership at the congress," he added.

Mutasa said the focus of the meeting would be on the economy and the government's controversial programme to seize thousands of white-owned farms for black resettlement, a move sharply criticised by Western governments and donors.

Analysts say many ZANU-PF officials see this congress as their best chance to force out a leader who has become a political liability due to his poor handling of a deepening economic and political crisis.

The country is in the second year of a recession with inflation running at an annual 60 percent, and about half the workforce unemployed.

"If he (Mugabe) manages to sweep this demand under the carpet at the congress, as he seems determined to do, or survives an unco-ordinated challenge, then the party has made its future more difficult," said Magade.

Political scientist Masipula Sithole said Mugabe could still be surprised by his potential rivals.

Sithole said Mugabe had failed to keep away from the congress the elected executive of the southern Masvingo province, Dzikamai Mavhaire. He was suspended for a year in 1998 after declaring in parliament that "Mugabe must go."

Mavhaire's executive also stirred up trouble for Mugabe at the annual party congress in 1997 when it proposed presidential term limits.

"I still think there is a strong possibility of a challenge from people who think change is the best way to confront the MDC," Sithole told Reuters.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won an unprecedented 57 of the 120 seats at stake at the June polls to ZANU-PF's 62.

ZANU-PF narrowly won after a violent campaign that left at least 31 mostly opposition supporters dead and saw hundreds of white-owned farms seized or occupied in an illegal land-grab defended by Mugabe and his aides.

Copyright 2000 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

See related sites about Africa

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.