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Why Fujimori backed off from claiming victory

April 13, 2000
Web posted at: 4:17 PM EDT (2017 GMT)

By Tony Karon

President Alberto Fujimori's decision to accept a runoff election has walked his country back from the brink, but he's no quitter -- and that suggests Peru may be in for a turbulent couple of months. The runoff was announced late Wednesday after electoral officials reported that Fujimori had narrowly failed to achieve a majority in a poll tainted by charges of vote-rigging. But that announcement may be a reflection that the president has been feeling foreign and domestic pressure over charges that he was stealing the election.

"The fact that it supposedly took over 24 hours to tally the last 7 percent of the vote suggests that what was actually happening was that Fujimori was coming under a barrage of criticism and warnings of dire consequences if he claimed a first-round victory," says TIME Latin America bureau chief Tim McGirk. "He came under considerable pressure from the United States, the European Union and the Organization of American States to accept a second-round runoff in light of widespread allegations of electoral fraud. And there were tens of thousands of people in the streets of Peru's major cities, vowing to fight any attempt to claim a first-round victory."

Even before the vote, the U.S. had warned that violent intimidation by Fujimori supporters during the campaign had jeopardized chances of a free and fair ballot. And as results began to pour in, so did allegations that many ballot papers had Fujimori's name preselected or opposition leader Alejandro Toledo's name cut off, as well as claims that people were accessing the electoral commission's computer system from Internet cafes and tampering with results. Toledo, a Harvard-trained economist who had jumped in a matter of weeks from about 5 percent support to win more than 40 percent of the vote, had called for a "peaceful rebellion" in the event that Fujimori would claim a first-round victory. Now, however, he'll have to steel himself for a bruising title bout with an incumbent who campaigns with his gloves off.

The Fujimori-Toledo battle is less about policy than leadership style. Both men are committed to a program of economic reform and liberalization, but Toledo is challenging the president's increasingly authoritarian grip on power. Indeed, Fujimori's own constitution allows only two presidential terms, but he found a loophole to permit himself a third, and his supporters in Congress dismissed the constitutional court judges who demurred. But despite the strong public support he won in the early '90s for reining in inflation and facing down two leftist guerrilla insurgencies, many voters have turned against Fujimori. "The economy is stagnating with some 60 percent underemployment in urban areas," says McGirk. "After Fujimori's 10 years in power, many people think he has run out of steam."

Toledo, who is of indigenous Indian heritage, may also have an advantage in his own rags-to-riches story. Some 45 percent of Peru's 25 million people are Indian, and a further 37 percent are of Mestizo (mixed) heritage. "Peru's politics have traditionally pitched a white oligarchy against the indigenous and Mestizo masses," says McGirk. "But Fujimori wasn't a member of the traditional elite, either. In the end, it may be a combination of Toledo's impoverished background and the fact that he's a respected economist that gives voters hope that he'll be able to understand their problems and help them."

Peru's traditional guarantor of power is the military. Fujimori has worked assiduously for years to cultivate support among the generals, but even there, his leadership style may have alienated important elements. "Fujimori put his intelligence chief, Vladimir Montesinos, in charge of the military, and Montesinos has, in turn, put his own cronies in charge of the different branches," says McGirk. "But Montesinos was dishonorably discharged from Peru's army in the '70s for selling secrets to the U.S., and there's considerable resentment against him in the officer corps. And Toledo's not exactly a fire-breathing leftist, so rather than weigh in behind Fujimori, this time the military may simply go with whoever emerges strongest in the runoff." While it's far too early to predict a result for that election, it's a safe bet that its victor will sport his share of welts and bruises.

Copyright © 2000 Time Inc.