Paraguay's election tests a troubled democracy

Two special forces police officers patrol the streets in Asuncion, Paraguay, on Saturday

ASUNCION, Paraguay (Reuters) -- Paraguayans are set to elect this weekend a vice president to fill the post left vacant after the previous officeholder's murder, as South America's weakest democracy struggles to shift from a century of strongmen and dictators to multi-party politics.

Pitting the world's longest-ruling party against a buoyant opposition, Sunday's vote in the landlocked country of 5.4 million people veers from the tradition of elections in which the president and his running mate stand on a one-party ticket.

Opposition Liberal Party candidate Julio Cesar Franco, a 48-year-old doctor, is competing for the influential post against Colorado Party candidate Felix Argana, 43, an architect and son of the slain vice president.

Paraguay called the vice presidential election after men in military dress swerved their car in front of Vice President Luis Maria Argana's jeep on an Asuncion street and killed him in a hail of bullets in March 1999.

The winner of Sunday's election also could pose a political threat to President Luis Gonzalez Macchi, who assumed power last year when former President Raul Cubas fled to Brazil, implicated in Argana's death and the killings of eight student protesters who were shot by rooftop snipers.

The neck-and-neck race appears to gives the Liberal party its best chance in memory of gaining a powerful post.

Some analysts have predicted that the election will breathe new life into Paraguay's sickly democracy.

But other analysts said they see no end to the California-sized country's tradition of volatility as long as the two entrenched conservative parties competed for power. The Colorado party has been in power for 53 years, and some analysts feared a new wave of instability if the Colorado party loses the election.

Former military fiefdom

Paraguay, wedged among forests, jungle and plains in the heart of South America, was until 1989 a military fiefdom under Colorado's Gen. Alfredo Stroessner. In just the last four years, there have been three coup attempts -- the most recent one in May -- amid grinding economic recession.

"What we're seeing here is a country struggling to consolidate democracy with not a lot of background in the field," Jose Luis Chea, head of the Organization of American States mission to observe Sunday's election, told Reuters in an interview.

Chea said he was not concerned by rumors of possible election-day violence in the Paraguayan countryside or possible fraud. He said the candidates had pledged to the Organization of American States to respect the result of Sunday's vote.

"This is certainly an atypical situation which requires a lot of political skill and a lot of political maturity. I think the Paraguayan people are demanding political maturity," Chea said.

"This is a dirty business no matter what happens," said Riordan Roett, director of Latin American Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

"You've got the son of a fascist (Argana) running against the political supporter (Franco) of a coup plotter. ... There is the possibility for instability whatever the outcome."

A feud inside the Colorado Party

The man accused of masterminding the assassination of the previous vice president is exiled coup-plotter Lino Oviedo, detained since June in a Brazilian jail awaiting possible extradition to Paraguay to face trial.

Oviedo, a Colorado member who is thought also to have inspired the May coup attempt, is a bitter enemy of the party's Argana faction, which includes disciples of Stroessner, who ruled Paraguay for 35 years before being overthrown in a 1989 palace coup. Oviedo has thrown his support to Franco despite being members of different parties in a bid to try to destabilize the Argana faction of his own party, analysts say.

The winner in the race between Argana and Franco likely will present a political threat to Macchi, who did not come to office through the ballot box and is laboring with an 11 percent popularity rating.

Franco has threatened to force Macchi from power if he wins and Colorado Party President Bader Rachid has said an electoral defeat for the Colorados "will lead to civil war."

But analysts have yet to spot any such signs of trouble.

"If they can just hold an election and show democracy is feasible in Paraguay that would be something," said Latin American writer and journalist James Neilson.

Paraguayans on the streets of Asuncion said everything seemed calm, at least for the time being.

"I just don't think people are that bothered," said a man selling fake Rolex watches a block away from the Senate building, which is still missing a chunk from its facade after light tanks did a drive-by shooting on it during May's brief, failed coup.

Copyright 2000 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Paraguayan president granted emergency powers after failed coup
May 19, 2000
Paraguay's ex-president now in exile in Brazil
March 30, 1999
Paraguay gets new president as military leader flees to Argentina
March 29, 1999
Paraguay hunts for vice president's assassins
March 23, 1999
New Paraguayan president frees former general jailed in '96 incident
August 19, 1998
Observers predict clean vote in Paraguay
May 9, 1998

CIA -- The World Factbook 1999 -- Paraguay
Organization of American States
The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.