Mexico's Tabasco election seen as tribal war inside long-ruling PRI

VILLAHERMOSA, Mexico (Reuters) -- In the far reaches of Mexico's muggy southeast, there is little evidence that the world's longest-ruling party was just ousted from power.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) appears to be very much in charge of Tabasco state on the Gulf of Mexico, its red-white-and-green banners draped from almost every stoplight of this weary capital ahead of an October 15 governor's election.

But the billboards and placards with the robust, gregarious face of PRI candidate Manuel Andrade, who leads in most polls, betray little of the behind-the-scenes political struggle.

The swampy, oil-rich region is an arena for a PRI-vs-PRI tribal war that has engulfed the party since it lost the presidency in July 2 national elections.

While Andrade and his two main rivals vie for the votes of the countryside, the real struggle can be found in the governor's office itself. There, Tabasco's current governor Roberto Madrazo hopes to convert a victory by his favored candidate into a springboard to the leadership of the national PRI, a post once held by his father, Carlos.

A win by either main opposition candidate -- both of whom left the PRI this year -- would dent Madrazo's power base, though it would not necessarily translate into a long-term loss by the PRI in Tabasco, analysts say.

"This is really a case of a civil war, the PRI is just fighting itself," said Jeffrey Weldon of Mexico's ITAM University. "If he (Madrazo) wins the governorship through his candidate it'll be pretty hard to stop him ... but if the opposition wins they might convert to PRI again. We really have no idea what party will be in power in a year."

With the stakes so high for Madrazo, civic groups say the PRI is relying on its old tricks of voter coercion, gift-giving and media control to ensure victory, leaving Tabasco untouched by the rest of Mexico's move to democracy.

Andrade, 34, a career politician and Villahermosa native, came to the Tabasco candidacy after winning a bitter PRI primary in April, a vote that many say was stacked in his favor because of Madrazo's support.

Andrade has campaigned with pledges to lure more industry and bolster the agricultural sector to relieve Tabasco's endemic poverty, and he has pushed to attract the youth vote with promises of jobs and improved higher education.

He has portrayed the state as the Mexican government's forgotten child, vowing to secure a bigger share of federal funds divvied up among the states to compensate for oil and gas from Tabasco that is shipped to all corners of Mexico.

"The federal government has to understand that Tabasco deserves a more equitable treatment," Andrade said in an interview. "We are Mexico's principal producers of gas, of oil, but we are not compensated fairly."

He faces a ballot with 10 opposition candidates, five of whom once belonged to the PRI. Unlike other Mexican elections this year, the parties did not forge an alliance to give battle to the PRI. Andrade's main competition is split between the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and the center-right National Action Party (PAN).

A more serious challenge comes from hotelier Raul Ojeda, 48, who says he switched to the PRD from the PRI in February because of frustration over the PRI's refusal to reform its ways. He says he wants to revitalize agriculture by offering guaranteed prices for each harvest and hopes to build up industries such as tourism.

But unlike Andrade, Ojeda argues the money is already there. "The reality is that the people are suffering from hunger in Tabasco and it is not justified that there are resources to back them, they just haven't been applied adequately," Ojeda told Reuters in an interview.

The Tabasco candidate of the PAN party of Vicente Fox, who takes over the presidency on December 1 after handing the PRI its first defeat in 71 years, is Jose Antonio de la Vega, in third place in most polls despite momentum from Fox's stunning win.

For all the variety of the 11 parties on the ballot, Tabasco residents seem notably skeptical that the election will usher in a change from decades of PRI government.

"My vote would go to Ojeda, for no other reason than a change," said Pablo Cordoba Arias, 69, who runs a printing shop in Villahermosa. "But it may just be more of the same."

The latest poll, on Wednesday, showed the PRI holding a wide lead in the Tabasco race. The Indemerc Harris Interactive poll had Andrade with a 12 percentage point lead over Ojeda, his nearest rival, 38 percent to 26 percent. The National Action Party candidate had 13 percent support.

Mexico's national elections in July were widely hailed as the cleanest ever, ending decades of fraud by the PRI, thanks to an independent election watchdog and scores of observers who watched for abuses like ballot stuffing and double voting.

But in Tabasco, human rights groups say this movement has passed them by because of Madrazo's no-holds-barred approach to securing the victory he needs to cement the PRI presidency. Opposition parties and human rights groups allege Madrazo spent upward of $65 million on his 1994 election, more than U.S. President Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign cost.

Madrazo's office said he was not giving interviews.

Human rights groups point to the PRI's near-complete control of the Tabasco media. The state's two television stations have devoted some 90 percent or more of their air time to Andrade and the PRI, and Ojeda said he could not get even his paid advertisements on the air.

Citizens group Alianza Civica says studies show two of four state newspapers have dedicated more than 70 percent of their election coverage to the PRI, and articles on Andrade often come with subtitles such as "the best option."

Tabasco residents have also reported PRI-led efforts to buy votes through gifts, including sewing machines, bicycles or farming implements, and the party has coerced voters in rural areas through social programs, say human rights groups.

With Tabasco in the throes of flooding from Hurricane Keith, the Rev. Francisco Goitia of the Tabasco Human Rights Commission fears the PRI will only turn up the heat on voters in exchange for state aid: "This (Madrazo) is a man who has dedicated himself to fraud in many elections. They will utilize the floods precisely for pressuring the people."

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