Is Canada's veteran Prime Minister outstaying his welcome?

OTTAWA, Ontario (Reuters) -- Some 40 years after a veteran Canadian leader suffered a stunning defeat in an early election designed to win him a third successive mandate, some wonder whether Prime Minister Jean Chretien runs the risk of repeating the feat.

Chretien, 66, called a November 27 election to capitalize on the relative inexperience of his right-wing opponent from Western Canada -- using the same tactics as 75-year-old prime minister Louis St. Laurent did in 1957.

St. Laurent -- well ahead in the polls just as Chretien is now -- nevertheless lost to Conservative rival John Diefenbaker in a huge upset.

Could Chretien suffer the same fate against federal novice Stockwell Day, who has only been leader of the right-wing western-based Canadian Alliance since July?

"Remember Uncle Louis. This is the haunting sound for Liberals in this campaign," wrote Lawrence Martin, respected commentator for the right-wing Ottawa Citizen newspaper.

"The same Liberals now seek a mandate for a furtherance of times past in the person of a leader of raw-boned Canadian values who, like the vast majority of men in his profession, doesn't know when to quit," he said.

Opinion polls show that while around 45 percent of voters will back the Liberals on November 27, many see Chretien as tired and arrogant and want him to step down.

The prime minister, who like St. Laurent was born in the French-speaking province of Quebec, wants to stay in power.

"My father always told me 'Finish the job' and we have not finished the job. I am in good health, I have a lot of experience, it's very useful in political life to have some experience and I have the support of my party," he told a television interviewer in the second week of campaigning.

Chretien likes to reel off a list of other former world leaders who were 67 when they first took power -- St. Laurent himself, Canadian prime minister Lester Pearson, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and French President Charles De Gaulle.

Sometime he jokingly reminds interviewers that 19th century British Prime Minister William Gladstone started his last term in power at the age of 82.

For someone stressing he is the right man to lead Canada into the high-tech 21st century, Chretien goes out of his way to note he has been in parliament since 1963. Sometimes he even jokes about how bad his computer skills are.

This provokes winces from some Liberal insiders, who fear Day will alter his tactics and turn the spotlight on Chretien, playing on the nation's evident desire for change.

"The one thing I worry about is that this could turn into a referendum on Jean Chretien's leadership. If that happens it will quickly become the campaign from hell," admitted one senior party strategist.

"If the voters start thinking 'There's not much difference in the economic platforms, let's decide whether we want the fresh-faced guy or the old one we've seen for the last 37 years' then I think we're in trouble," he told Reuters.

In 1957 the Liberals were so confident St. Laurent would take them to a third successive win that they joked they would "run him stuffed" if they had to.

Chretien's performance so far has been unimpressive but by no means as bad as that of St. Laurent, who was deeply depressed and showing the first signs of mental dementia.

"There is a lot you can compare to the 1957 election, including opinion polls showing the Liberals, almost up to the very end, were doing fine," said Des Morton, head of McGill University's Institute for the Study of Canada.

Close Chretien ally Don Boudria, the cabinet minister responsible for pushing legislation through the House of Commons, said on Friday that the favorable opinion polls would encourage party activists to redouble their efforts.

Morton sees things very differently and draws parallels with what happened in 1957, especially the fact that so many Liberals seem unenthusiastic about their own leader.

"If I were a Liberal I would be panic-struck by these polls, which are telling voters 'You can either vote to strengthen the opposition or you can stay home because your vote isn't going to make difference'," he said.

"I think the polls will reassure Liberal voters because they'll feel they don't have to vote for Chretien. In 1957 the word was that 'Diefenbaker can't win, so I'll use my vote to strengthen the opposition'. He won a minority government."

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