Canada seen re-electing Jean Chretien

ST. ELIE, Quebec (Reuters) - Canadians head to the polls Monday for the third time in seven years, resigned to the probable reelection of Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien, even though he is not their first choice to lead.

Still, with the number of undecided voters at an extraordinarily high 20 to 25 percent in some surveys, the outcome was not locked up. And if he did win, the big question was whether he would lose his majority in Parliament.

At a lunch in St. Elie, near his hometown of Shawinigan, a crowd chanted "On va gagner" (We're going to win), at what may be the last campaign event of Chretien's 37-year political career.

Chretien voiced confidence of victory but warned that a minority government would have to rely on the Bloc Quebecois, a party devoted to taking his native French-speaking Quebec out of Canada.

"The people of Canada...don't want to have a minority government, where the Bloc Quebecois might have -- or most probably will have -- the balance of power," he said.

Analysts said none of the four opposition parties would hold the sole balance of power, but a minority government would restrain what they refer to as Liberal arrogance.

The final poll of the campaign, a Reuters/Zogby Research Canada survey conducted Nov. 23-25, showed the Liberals slipping one point to just under 40 percent, ahead of the 27 percent popular support for the right-wing Canadian Alliance and the 14 percent for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Alliance had unsuccessfully sought to cooperate with the Conservatives to avoid splitting the right-wing vote, which allowed Liberal victories in 1993 and 1997 and which might well return the Liberals to power Monday.

The biggest battle is for the province of Ontario, which has more than one-third of Parliament's seats, but the Liberals look set to take most of them because of the vote splitting.

Saturday night Day led more than 2,000 supporters in Abbotsford, British Columbia -- the biggest rally of any party in the campaign -- in chanting: "Come on, Ontario."

An evangelical Christian, he does not campaign on Sunday. But his campaign took the rare step in Canadian politics of buying an advertisement on several private Ontario channels for Sunday night, in a bid to put out their message unfiltered.

"You deserve a chance for a better future," said Day, pitching tax and debt cuts and an end to government waste.

Finance minister preferred

At current levels of support, three out of five Canadians prefer Chretien's opponents. Even many of his backers would prefer Chretien's more conservative finance minister, Paul Martin, a man who wants to replace Chretien but who has fought loyally at his side during this campaign.

Chretien has come under fire for unfairly bringing government largess to his home district, but the choice of venues for the start and end of his campaign seemed to symbolize he was dismissing such concerns.

He kicked off his campaign on Oct. 22 with a rally in Shawinigan's Auberge Gouverneur, an inn which received a grant that the government's auditor-general criticized for inappropriate political interference.

And Sunday's final baked beans lunch was held directly across from Confections St. Elie, a clothing maker which received a jobs grant that the police is now investigating. The jobs were meant for Montreal but the company set up shop in Chretien's district.

"I have to take care of my voters," he said, after giving a retrospective speech that almost seemed like a farewell.

Chretien said during the campaign that he would consider stepping down two or three years into his mandate. Many analysts expect Martin's supporters to try to force him out by early 2002 if he does not go.

The prime minister's lead in the polls was reduced during the campaign after he admitted to having pressed a federal bank to lend money to an associate in his district.

Opponents also pointed out that his budget cuts led to long waiting lines in the government-run health system.

Day concedes that relentless negative attacks have dented his popularity too. Chretien's camp has impugned his religious tenets and mocked his belief in creationism.

The prime minister has accused Day of harboring a hidden agenda to destroy public health care, reintroduce restrictions on abortion and limit immigration -- charges he denies.

After open musings by Alliance officials on increased private involvement in the public health system, Day had to expend a great deal of time saying he opposed two tiers.

Copyright 2000 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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