Danish euro poll on knife-edge

COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- Early exit polls suggest the Danish referendum on adopting the euro will rest on a knife-edge once all votes have been cast.

Both the 'yes' and 'no' camps have fought hard battles to swing voters to their thinking about whether to discard their national currency, the krone.

Even as voters were walking to the polls campaigners were still handing out leaflets trying to win last-minute waverers.

The first television exit poll suggested Denmark would narrowly vote to reject joining the euro single currency.

The poll, by Denmark's TV 2, has 52.5 percent of voters saying 'no' the euro -- with 47.5 percent voting 'yes'.

The TV station carried out exit poll-interviews with 6,297 voters at 45 polling stations across the country -- the first major sample taken -- and is said to have an error sample of three percent.

An earlier exit poll of 100 people gave the 'yes' camp a slender lead.

AUDIO Listen as CNN's Jim Bitterman gives first exit poll results  844K/39 sec.  AIF sound    VIDEO CNN's Robin Oakley looks at Europe's concern about Denmark's decision Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) CNN's Robin Oakley reports on Denmark's debate Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) CNN's Jim Bittermann takes a look at the opposing sides Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)

Another survey conducted by the Danish national news agency Ritzau showed that 12.1 percent of voters had cast their ballot within two hours of polls opening, indicating that final turnout is likely to be way above 80 percent. The results were based on telephone calls to several polling stations in different parts of the country.

Opinion polls published shortly before polls opened at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT) were neck and neck, with the four million or so voters being evenly split between the yes and no camps.

CNN's Jim Bittermann said that of six polls published shortly before polls opened at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT), three showed voters slightly against the euro, two put the yes voters in a small majority, and one put them level.

He added: "There has been a slight shift over the past few days away from a decisive no vote."

The latest Gallup poll shows those voting against the euro just a point ahead of the yes vote - despite being at least six points in front earlier in the week.

The Gallup poll has 47 percent rejecting the euro and in favour of keeping the Krone, with 46 percent wanting to join the single currency. The rest are undecided or say they do not intend to vote.

Two other polls suggest the historic ballot is going to be a close race. A survey by the PLS research institute said 50.5 percent of Danes would vote yes while 49.5 percent would vote no, the daily newspaper Aktuelt reported.

PLS said the figures excluded eight percent of undecided voters. The poll's margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

In the previous PLS poll published on September 14, opponents led supporters by 44-39 percent.

A GfK opinion poll published in the tabloid B.T. showed euro supporters and opponents neck-and-neck at 47 percent each with five percent of voters undecided and one percent not intending to vote.

The previous GfK poll on September 26 found the anti-euro 'no' side three points ahead of the pro-euro 'yes' side, 44-41 percent.

Voting stations close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) and a preliminary result is expected around 10.30 p.m. (2030 GMT).

Danish Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said he would campaign until the last minute to secure a yes vote.

Rasmussen said that in the event of a no vote the Danish authorities would defend the Danish crown's existing link with the euro.

He said a no vote would diminish Denmark's role in plans to enlarge the European Union. However, Rasmussen added that he did not believe it would create a "two-speed" Europe, in which Denmark and some other countries not part of the euro would be left out of other plans to forge ahead with political and economic integration.

Denmark's Foreign Minister Niels Helveg Petersen told CNN's Riz Khan on Wednesday that joining the single currency would be politically and economically advantageous for Denmark. He said that currently the country was forced to copy euroland policies without having a voice.

Reluctance to join the single currency was a "psychological problem -- not a real problem for the economy," said Petersen. The euro supporters have been clawing back the lead in the polls since the opposition to the single currency peaked last week with polls showing them ahead by 12 percent.

The "yes" campaigners say the euro will offer economic stability and that since all are agreed that Denmark should continue anyway as a member of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, shadowing the euro, it will be as well to join and enjoy influence over decisions that will affect the country.

They argue that without euro membership, Denmark will be vulnerable to capital flight and currency speculation.

But those against the euro, including the greens and communists, believe that the single currency will reduce Danish sovereignty.

The Krone has been fixed to the euro since the beginning of last year. Should a no vote triumph, the krone would still remain bound to the euro.

The euro took effect in 11 of 15 EU countries in January 1999 for corporate and investment transactions, with coins and bills to be introduced in January 2002.

Denmark, Britain and Sweden opted out, while Greece, which was barred from membership because of high inflation and a budget deficit, will join on January 1, 2001.

Danes stunned fellow EU nations in 1992 by rejecting the Maastricht treaty for a common currency and a common defence.

A year later, voters approved a revised treaty with clauses allowing it to initially stay out of the currency and the defense cooperation.

Hard sell in Danish euro vote
September 26, 2000
'No' vote holds its lead in Denmark
September 25, 2000
Gloves come off ahead of Danish euro vote
September 21, 2000
More than money -- Denmark and the euro
September 19, 2000
IMF offers bleak assessment of the euro
September 19, 2000

In-Depth Specials: Denmark Decides

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Danish Economic Council
People's Movement Against the EU
Danish Parliament (in Danish)

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