Wily Milosevic considers options

LONDON, England (CNN) -- A second round of voting in Yugoslavia's presidential elections, ordered by the country's Electoral Commission to take place on October 8, provides Slobodan Milosevic with time to consider his options.

But given that the opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, says he is the outright winner and will not be drawn into a second round of voting, what are the options for both sides?

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a multinational private think-tank committed to preventing international conflict, has outlined a number of routes available.

VIDEO GALLERY Watch video from CNN's Yugoslavia election coverage     IMAGE GALLERY Images from the historic vote     AUDIO What will the opposition do now? CNN's Alessio Vinci reports. 810K/37 sec. WAV sound     MESSAGE BOARD Peace in the Balkans     RESOURCES Yugoslavia election information

ICG President Gareth Evans told CNN.com on Thursday: "The first scenario is for the protests in the street to gain momentum, leading to a crumbling within the Milosevic administration, loss of support of the security forces and people within his inner circle saying they want him to go.

"There is every reason for pursuing this option at the moment," he said.

This option could effectively leave Milosevic defenceless as many officials within the army and police realise he is no longer a popular elected leader.

However, Evans said there was also the risk that people could be killed or injured if tension continues to build.

Democracy 'flawed'

The second scenario would be for Kostunica to return to the polling booths for a second round of voting in the expectation that by doing so, a victory could be secured. Once again, this would send a clear message to the security forces and Milosevic's close associates.

"There is a lot to be said for taking a deep breath and taking this option. I don't think the international community should be critical of (Kostunica) if he decides to take this option," Evans said.

"If it does come to round two, Montenegro could join in," he added, saying that this would be "all the better if international observers could be secured to monitor the polls."

If the opposition goes ahead with its refusal to take part in a second round of voting, Milosevic could enter into the run-off and annul the elections, claiming the democratic process is flawed.

However, Sascha Pichler from the ICG, added: "Because Kostunica stated so publicly that he would not enter a second round, it would be difficult for him to do so without discrediting himself.

"It is a very calculated move by Milosevic to cause disunity in the opposition rank. We have seen it in the past -- Milosevic has always had aces up his sleeve."

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