After the uprising: Options for Europe

By Robin Oakley, CNN.com European Political Editor

The Western powers could not manage it with 78 days of bombing. But an election victory for Vojislav Kostunica and the street revolution has turned Slobodan Milosevic into an ex-president.

Yet even amid the heady excitement of flag-waving protests, the world's diplomats were already turning their minds to a future that is not so simple.

News that Russia would not be granting Milosevic exile was the first sign of the hard-headed calculations being made.

Milosevic may have been a traditional and longstanding ally of Moscow. But as a UN Security Council member, Russia would have been duty bound to hand him over for prosecution on the war crimes indictment and did not want to face the embarrassment of either doing that or being seen refusing to do so.

With strong cultural and ethnic links, the Russians want to keep their influence in Serbia under Vojislav Kostunica, Milosevic's election rival.

QUOTE News that Russia would not be granting Milosevic exile was the first sign of the hard-headed calculations being made.

For the European Union it is now a matter of fulfilling pledges. EU foreign ministers had promised the Serbian people that once they rejoined the family of European nations by toppling Milosevic, then the EU and others would call off sanctions and produce a generous aid package.

They must now make good the pledges to begin rebuilding the Serbian infrastructure devastated by NATO bombs during the Kosovo conflict and by years of neglect under communism.

But the EU's record on actually distributing aid is an atrociously tardy one.

One dilemma which could occur is that while Kostunica is a democrat and a moderate, he is also a strong Serbian nationalist who always condemned NATO's bombing.

QUOTE The EU's record on actually distributing aid is an atrociously tardy one.

He has resisted the idea of handing over Milosevic or any of his henchmen to war crimes prosecutors in The Hague. If he maintains that line will there be a temptation to retain some elements of the oil embargo and the trade sanctions?

In Kosovo the ousting of Milosevic and the political uncertainties surrounding the new regime may rekindle efforts to seek independence. Albanian leaders are arguing that the time has come for the province to cut its ties with Belgrade.

They fear that NATO and EU delight at the toppling of Milosevic and the institution of a democratic Yugoslavia will see their cause forgotten and there is the risk of renewed armed conflict at some stage as a result.

The independence issue, they insist, is one entirely separate from the ousting of the Serbian dictator. But there appears to be no appetite in the West for Kosovan independence.

QUOTE The U.S. wants Kosovo to remain an autonomous region in a democratic Serbia region. Militant Kosovars have other ideas.

The U.S. wants Kosovo to remain an autonomous region in a democratic Serbia region. Militant Kosovars have other ideas.

Finally there is the question of what happens in Serbia's sister republic of Montenegro, which has also been seeking independence.

The immediate fear that Milosevic would stir up bloodshed in Montenegro, which mostly boycotted the presidential elections, as a diversion to help him cling on power has disappeared.

Now the question is how much the earlier moves towards independence for Montenegro were a means of separation from the Milosevic regime or whether they run deeper.

So far Montenegro's President, Milo Djukanovic, has hailed the overthrow of Milosevic and said he hopes Serbia and Monetenegro can now forge better relations.

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