Bosnian nationalists set for dominance

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina -- Nationalists look set for electoral victory among both the Serb and Muslim Croat populations, dashing European Union hopes that reformists would replace ethnically devisive leaders.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), said figures show Muslim nationalists had crept ahead of a multi-ethnic party in one of the parliamentary votes in Bosnia's Muslim-Croat part after 86 percent of the ballot had been counted.

The EU had already expressed "disappointment" on Tuesday that the nationalist message was still so powerful after early results from Sunday's election indicated that the Serb nationalists would be elected.

The situation worsened by Wednesday when the vote for the presidential candidate of the hard-line nationalist Serb Democratic Party (SDS) founded by Radovan Karadzic tipped over 50 percent, putting a first-round victory within its sights.

The nationalist Croatian Democratic Union's (HDZ) vote slipped slightly, but looked set to win outright control of two of 10 regional assemblies in the Muslim-Croat federation, where none of the more moderate parties had any majority.

The HDZ is expected to face sanctions from the international community over its role in running an illegal referendum on the status of Croats in Bosnia on election day.

OSCE spokesman Luke Zahner told a news conference its lawyers would meet on Wednesday to decide on any penalties. A Western official said earlier that some candidates could lose seats.

On the eve of the poll, HDZ leader Ante Jelavic, alleging discrimination against the minority Croats, declared the OSCE and other international bodies overseeing the implementation of Bosnia's 1995 peace agreement illegitimate and threatened to boycott joint Bosnian institutions.

He appeared to back down in an interview published in Tuesday's issue of the Croatian weekly Globus, but underlined that the West could not ignore the party's popular support.

"The international community has a mandate in Bosnia and we respect their efforts, but they must acknowledge that we have the mandate of our own people and we are accountable to the people," he said, distancing the HDZ from the plebiscite.

The EU's foreign policy and security affairs chief Javier Solana was among Western officials to express disappointment over nationalist wins, despite some gains by the multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Solana said on Tuesday: "I am...disappointed that the nationalist message is still so powerful at a time when Bosnia's neighbours have turned their back on past policies and have resolutely embarked on a forward-looking course."

Pre-election pundits had predicted a vote for reformists, rejecting the nationalists' leaders who had taken the ethnic populations through years of war.

James Cunningham, deputy U.S. representative at the United Nations, said Washington would try to keep from power politicians seen as blocking the path towards a sustainable peace.

Washington's envoy to the U.N., Richard Holbrooke, had called for a ban on the Serb nationalist SDS before the elections, charging that it was "criminal" and maintained links with Karadzic and other war crimes suspects.

Party officials have dismissed the charges.

Zahner said four municipalities in the Serb republic had yet to be counted as well as some of the votes cast by the many Bosnians who moved abroad during the country's 1992-5 war, which do not have to be in until November 17.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Main parties in Bosnia elections
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European Union (EU, EC)
OSCE - Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

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