Barriers threatening to wreck N. Ireland peace process

By Robin Oakley, CNN.com European political editor

London and Dublin are in crucial discussions with the Northern Ireland peace process once again in jeopardy.

Attacks by dissident republican groups, continued unionist opposition to planned reforms of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, the row over decommissioning terrorist weapons and gang warfare mean the 1998 Good Friday Agreement is again at risk.

The peace process has had a permanent state of near-crisis since its inception. Now prime ministers Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern face more tough decisions.

The threats are varied. First David Trimble, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Northern Ireland's First Minister, faces yet another revolt in his own ranks from critics of the Good Friday Agreement.

The opposition to him includes long time critics of the Agreement, those disillusioned since by the IRA's failure to decommission arms and those who want his job.

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His opponents want to force his resignation from the Northern Ireland executive, even if they cannot remove him as party leader.

The Ulster Unionists are split on the Agreement. Some say it is worth maintaining and continue to serve alongside nationalists in the assembly because the official IRA ceasefire has stuck and fewer lives are being lost.

Others insist the situation has been cynically exploited by republicans who have seen their terrorists released from prison without fulfilling their part of the bargain and handing over arms.

So far the IRA has progressed no further than letting international monitors inspect three arms dumps where some weapons have been put beyond use.

The Ulster Unionists were shaken by defeat in last month's by-election for a Northern Ireland seat in the UK Parliament in which their candidate was beaten by one from the Democratic Unionist Party, which opposes the Good Friday Agreement.

UUP rejectionists also object to Blair's government legislation revamping the RUC, including changing its name.

Trimble was in fighting form defending the peace agreement at a bad-tempered UUP party meeting last weekend. But he is also highly critical of police reform.

Northern Ireland nationalists, by contrast, say the reforms do not go far enough and have received backing from Ahern's government in Dublin.

Once again the peace agreement is looking fragile with the possibility that Trimble may be forced into resignation by a party meeting within the next month and that the UK Government will be forced to suspend the devolutionary Northern Ireland for a second time only months after it was reconstituted.

This would bring a strong reaction from nationalists.

Blair and Ahern have to try to sort out their differences on policing reform. They need to find some way of bustling along a foot-dragging IRA on the decommissioning of arms.

They will be looking to shore up Trimble and they need to restore public confidence in the faltering peace process.

From CNN.com Europe.

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