Hezbollah eyes political role in Lebanese elections

BEIRUT, Lebanon (Reuters) -- Lebanon's Hezbollah party is seeking to translate its battlefield victory against Israel into triumph in the second round of parliamentary polls next Sunday.

But an uneasy alliance with its rival, the Amal Movement, has ensured that neither group will emerge as the undisputed leader of Shiite Muslims, Lebanon's biggest religious group.

MESSAGE BOARD Withdrawal from Lebanon

Analysts say this balance suits Lebanon's political arbiter Syria, keen to avoid instability in the south by keeping a lid on rivalry between the main forces there.

Damascus also wants to make sure its staunch ally, Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, retains the political upper hand.

"Despite Hezbollah's victory, Berri remains the more powerful force in the south," said Michael Young, an analyst for Lebanon Report newsletter. "Only he can forge alliances with the Christians that Hezbollah would find difficult to achieve."

Backed by Syria and Shiite Iran, the Hezbollah (Party of God) led a war of attrition that eventually compelled Israel to end its 22-year-old occupation of Lebanon on May 24.

Hezbollah has outclassed Amal on the battlefield since the Iranian-backed group emerged as a fighting force after Israel's 1982 invasion. But its Islamist ideology has not drawn the wide spectrum of support accorded to the more secular Amal.

Analysts say supporters of Amal and Hezbollah, whose fighters have clashed intermittently, were looking to the ballot box to show which is the dominant power in the south.

The electoral battle there could easily have turned violent -- Amal militiamen killed two Hezbollah supporters in July in an argument over campaign posters.

Analysts say that if each party had contested the elections on its own, Hezbollah would have gained ground on the back of its victory against Israel. It would also have won votes for providing services the state was slow to supply in the former occupation zone, such as water and health care.

But they argue that Berri remains the leading representative of the mainly Shiite south, if only because his clout as speaker of parliament guarantees the community a strong voice.

"Berri might be unpopular, he might be regarded as corrupt and self-serving -- but for many in the south, he is their man and he looks after his own by making sure Shiites get a share of whatever pie is being divided in Lebanon," an analyst said.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who in appearance could be mistaken for an Iranian mullah, knows he cannot readily take over Berri's role in Lebanon's sensitive sectarian system.

But Hezbollah, better organized than Amal, looks set to play a more significant role in politics from now on.

"Hezbollah's power base will not let it stay a mere militia. Yet Hezbollah as a political party does not have any potential as a governing force with its current ideology in a country like Lebanon, where religion is very important," said Ibrahim al-Amin, an analyst for As-Safir newspaper.

"The party leadership understands this situation, which is why it is settling for a handful of seats when it could get up to 25 percent of the vote," he added.

Nasrallah, who is only 39 years old, is coy about his political ambitions, saying after a landmark meeting with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan in June: "We are ready for more cooperation on the political and non-political fields to serve Lebanese goals."

The party has nine deputies in the outgoing 128-seat parliament and will add another if its joint ticket with Amal secures the expected victory.

Part of Nasrallah's strength is that unlike Berri, he has not involved himself in political feuding with the authorities. The Hezbollah leader has also not lost sight of his guerrillas' ability to fall in with Syria's desire to keep Israel on edge.

"Hezbollah is well aware of its regional role, which is coloring its view of local politics," Amin said. "Perhaps for the people of the south, the battle with Israel is over but for Hezbollah, Israel is still the enemy."

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