U.S. eyes 'one more shot' at Mideast peace deal

WEB EXCLUSIVE Jerrold Kessel on the winners and losers in Israel's election vote

In this story: 'Cards are in Arafat's hands' Lines of communication opened RELATED STORIES, SITES

From CNN State Department Correspondent Andrea Koppel and Producer Elise Labott

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Calling Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's decision not to oppose new elections "an opportunity worth testing," U.S. officials said Wednesday "there may be one more shot" at a Mideast peace deal.

Rather than being weakened by the prospect of new elections, Barak's position could be strengthened, the U.S. officials said.

ALSO Peace prospects uncertain as Israel looks to new election Why Barak gambled on an election Possible candidates for Israeli prime minister Barak in power: Tripwires at every turn    VIDEO CNN's Jerrold Kessel reports on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's decision to call an early election (November 29) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) The mayor of Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert, is interviewed on CNN and supports the national government's views on the violence (November 29) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) The Palestinian Representative to the U.S., Hasan Abdel Rahman, says Israeli political moves are an internal matter but the government's attitude must change (November 29) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) Road closings and checkpoints by Israeli security have divided Gaza, severely restricting movement. CNN's Rula Amin reports (November 29) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)     AUDIO Ehud Olmert, mayor of Jerusalem, proposes a new approach to the peace process 376K/35 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Hasan Abdel Rahman, Palestinian representative to the U.S., describes what he thinks are steps Israelis must take toward peace 305K/28 sec. AIFF or WAV sound    GALLERY Tears, tension and diplomacy (November 27)     IN-DEPTH Israeli Elections 1999     MESSAGE BOARD Mideast peace

Specifically, one senior State Department official told CNN that the United States would expect a "calculated shift" in the strategy of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat if the violence in the region diminishes over the next few days. That could pave the way for a resumption of talks, the official said.

U.S. officials also said they see a "ticking clock for Arafat" due to three factors: Barak's uncertain future; concern among Arab leaders about the long-term effects of violence in the region; and increased domestic pressure from the Palestinian people.

One senior official said the prospect that Barak could be replaced by a right-wing Likud conservative, such as Ariel Sharon or Benjamin Netanyahu, might suggest to Arafat that "it is time to recalibrate."

"He has to ask himself ... where do I go?" the U.S. official said, adding that Arafat "might have the moral high ground" over a new Israeli prime minister, "but not a partner."

Publicly, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said "the need to end the cycle of violence is still there."

"There's been a lot of speculation, one way or the other, on the peace process" and how Barak's conceding to new elections "might affect it," Boucher said. "I think, from our point of view, we recognize that Israelis and Palestinians continue to share the common need and the interest in bringing about an enduring peace."

'Cards are in Arafat's hands'

Israeli officials said Barak will seek to strike a peace deal with Arafat and use the election as a referendum for the agreement. And they realize Arafat's willingness to compromise on a deal will directly affect Barak's political future.

"Arafat's ability to influence the election is hardly minimal," said one Israeli official in Washington. "In many ways, the cards are in Arafat's hands."

This official said the peace deal Barak put on the table at the Camp David summit this summer "can be finessed, but if Arafat is not willing to compromise on his positions, no amount of Israeli or American flexibility can help."

U.S. officials also caution that Arafat "needs to be a public partner himself" to end the violence in the region and jump-start the peace process. That means Arafat and the senior Palestinian leadership must be seen as "acting on the bad guys" by attempting to stop terrorist incidents, nightly shootings and rioters.

These officials said that while Barak's wish for an "end to the conflict" might not reach the hearts and minds of either the Israelis or the Palestinians for a long time, there needs to be a "finality of claims" for a true peace to take root. That is why, one official said, Barak's proposal for an interim peace plan is not ideal, and that the parties have "got to go for the comprehensive" agreement.

Lines of communication opened

U.S. officials said they are taking a more laid back approach for now, noting with some relief the fact that communication lines have opened between the Israelis and Palestinians over the last several days.

"They are talking," said one U.S. official. "And if they can create some measure of confidence together, then it is better for us to sit back."

Israeli officials said they are sending "significant" signals that they are eager to bring the Palestinians back to the table, including cooperating with the international fact-finding committee led by former Sen. George Mitchell. Israel has been less than enthusiastic about working with such a committee.

Israeli officials also hinted that they might allow international monitors into the region as part of an overall peace settlement.

All this is happening, the Israeli officials say, despite what they described as an unwillingness on the part of the Palestinians to implement commitments made at the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit last month.

These officials said Israel has also backed off an earlier demand for the Palestinians to publicly acknowledge an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and instead are insisting on "a significant reduction of violence" for peace talks to resume.

"Barak is not naive," said one Israeli official. "But he has demonstrated he is willing to see if the political process can work."

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