History in the balance

'Almost History' documents the might-have-beens of times gone by

A speech by Richard Nixon in the event of Apollo 11's failure inspired "Almost History," a book that examines what-ifs, close calls and twists of fate throughout history

In this story: Roads not taken Chilling reminders For want of a nail RELATED SITES

By Todd Leopold
CNN Interactive Books Editor

(CNN) -- Al Gore was on his way to a Nashville plaza to read a concession speech to his supporters when messages from aides changed his mind. George W. Bush's lead in Florida was dwindling, they said. Don't concede.

And so, as this election campaign's overtime minutes dwindle, that speech has remained the speech not given. It may yet end up a footnote to the campaign.

It also may end up in a future edition of "Almost History" (Hyperion), a book of what-ifs, close calls and twists of fate during the United States' last three centuries.

CHAT TRANSCRIPT Roger Bruns     ALSO Excerpt: 'Almost History'     TURNING POINTS Could the South have won the Civil War? Could John Lennon have lived? In two tales from "Almost History," Roger Bruns highlights documents that offer fateful glimpses of might-have-been history. Robert E. Lee's Special Orders John Lennon's deportation letter

Just imagine the possibilities, says Roger Bruns of the National Archives, the volume's author.

"You could use the e-mail between Florida and Nashville, the contingency plans of both campaigns or Gore's concession speech" as jumping-off points to alternate realities, he says.

History often turns on such seemingly trivial bits of paper, he observes. Eisenhower had a speech handy if the D-Day invasion failed. Richard Nixon once applied to the FBI. Ulysses S. Grant was invited to accompany the Lincolns to Ford's Theatre.

A document even saved Teddy Roosevelt's life: When he was shot just prior to an appearance in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the 1912 presidential campaign, the thick speech he was going to give prevented the bullet from reaching his heart. (The indomitable Teddy, still wounded, gave the speech anyway.)

"(Each document) refer(s) to a single thing," Bruns says in a recent phone interview from his home in northern Virginia. "At each of these turning points, things could have been different."

How different? The South could have won the Civil War. The Nazis could have taken Europe. The Apollo 11 mission could have left Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin stranded on the moon. Each of these instances is associated with documentary evidence that either changed history or detailed contingency plans if an operation didn't work.

In 1931, Winston Churchill was seriously struck by a taxi. "Almost History" wonders if Britain would be a Nazi colony today without the leadership of Churchill during World War II

It was one of those contingency documents -- a speech by Richard Nixon in the event of Apollo 11's failure -- that inspired "Almost History," says Bruns. A friend had seen a column by William Safire, a former Nixon speechwriter, about that speech. Soon Bruns, an established author, was poking around in the nation's repositories.

"Almost History" can be divided into three types of documents, he says: those that played a direct role in an event, like Roosevelt's speech; contingency plans, like the Nixon speech; and evidence things could have been different.

One of Bruns' favorite examples of the latter is an application Richard Nixon made to the FBI in 1937. "Nixon decided he wanted to be a G-man," says Bruns. "He actually had an interview." Nixon's application was rejected, though the interviewer wasn't unimpressed. In response to the question, 'Does the Applicant appear to have executive ability?' he had written, 'Perhaps.' "

Some examples are whimsical. Bruns includes H.L. Mencken's 1917 essay about the history of the bathtub in America, an almost complete fabrication that many took as gospel truth. There's also Scientific American's conclusion that "the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development." Editors made that declaration in 1909.

Roger Bruns looks at both eventful occassions and seemingly small events that could have changed the course of history in "Almost History"

Others are chilling reminders of how ignorance can lead to tragedy. RMS Titanic, for example, ignored warnings of icebergs in its course. More recently, the United Nations disregarded a 1994 cable stating that a Rwandan genocide was imminent.

One tale Bruns finds particularly unsettling is the story of Winston Churchill's taxicab accident. In 1931, Churchill -- then out of power -- stepped off a Manhattan curb and was hit by a passing taxi. He was rushed to the hospital, where he contracted pleurisy. "It was an absolute miracle he survived," says Bruns. Without Churchill's leadership, he adds, Britain could be a Nazi colony today.

And if it doesn't seem that something so minor as a note could affect something so big as a presidential election, consider a 13-word telegram from Election Night 1876: "If you can hold your state, Hayes will win. Can you do it?"

The telegram was sent by John Reid, a Republican operative had noticed that the vote totals in Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina were extremely close between Democrat Samuel Tilden and Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. Reid's note to several Republican leaders set in motion a series of events that led to Hayes' election -- and the end of Reconstruction in the South.

Of course, almost any incident could have been fodder for "Almost History." Military outcomes have hinged on freak storms; the Mongol Empire, on the verge of taking Europe, fell to pieces because of a ruler's death thousands of miles away. But Bruns is particularly fond of events associated with a piece of paper.

"What the documents do is give physical evidence," he says. "They show just how fragile history is."

Something to consider the next time you vote.

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