One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Stuart Rothenberg: The GOP's 2001 headaches

WASHINGTON -- For eight years, both New Jersey and Virginia have had Republican governors. But with Christie Whitman of New Jersey having moved over the Environmental Protection Administration and Gov. Jim Gilmore of Virginia term limited, the GOP faces a difficult one-two punch in the only two states with gubernatorial elections this year.

Part of the Republicans' problems involves candidates. While the Democrats have a single major candidate in each state -- Mark Warner in Virginia and Jim McGreevey in New Jersey -- the Republicans have fights in both states.

In Virginia, both Lt. Gov. John Hager and Attorney General Mark Earley think they should be the GOP nominee for governor. And in the Garden State, both Senate President Don DiFrancesco, who recently became acting governor after Whitman yielded her office to take over at EPA, and Jersey City Mayor Brent Schundler think they should carry the New Jersey Republican Party's banner.

Virginia Republicans will pick their nominee in a state convention, while New Jersey Republicans will have a primary. But in each case the ultimate nominee will first have to unite a divided party before he can turn his attention to a formidable Democratic opponent.

Warner and McGreevey are credible candidates, in part, because each has already run statewide. McGreever lost to Whitman narrowly four years ago, while Mark Warner ran a strong but unsuccessful race against Virginia Sen. John Warner, a Republican, in 1996.

The abundance of GOP candidates in both states is a problem for the party, but it isn't the only reason by the Democrats are so well positioned.

In New Jersey, Democratic candidates have done well in recent Senate races and presidential contests, and the GOP is simply trying to hold on to state legislative gains that were made in the early 1990s. Political trends are against the Republicans in the Garden State, and there is no reason to believe that those trends, which reflect underlying changes in the state's electorate, won't help the Democratic nominee.

After having been in power for almost eight years, Whitman has produced a record with plenty to shoot at. And DiFrancesco has his own troubles, now that reporters have been scrambling over the story that he defaulted on a big bank loan and was bailed out by a friend who later received a state contract..

The same Republican vulnerability holds true in Virginia. While long-term political trends have benefited the Republicans in that state, eight years of GOP governors (first George Allen and now Gilmore) give Warner a record that he can try to pick apart. In fact, the state's current economic problems, which include Gilmore's insistence on cutting Virginia's car tax even though it would put the state in a budget squeeze, gives the Democrats just the kind of ammunition they'll need for November. Even some GOP legislators in the General Assembly oppose the tax cut.

These off-year gubernatorial elections usually are meaningless in terms of broader, national political trends, since they are insulated from national events by being held in an "off, off year," when no federal races are held. But if the Democrats win both contest - and that is quite possible, even probable -- you'll hear plenty of talk about what the results say for 2002. And even if they say relatively little, the two contests could produce a wave of Democratic enthusiasm that could give the party a helpful boost going into the midterm elections.

Stuart Rothenberg: The vice president's health

See related sites about Politics

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.