One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

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Stuart Rothenberg: More challenges for Bush than opportunities

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Almost any dispassionate assessment of George W. Bush's first three and a half months in the White House has to give the president high marks. Underestimated by the media and his opposition, he won applause for his Cabinet, for his handling of the China crisis and for the way his tax and education proposals appeal alternately to conservatives and moderates.

Circumstances are changing, however, and Bush faces an increasingly difficult situation.

The next three or four months will determine whether Bush's presidency is resilient, or whether his job approval will sink. And if the public does turn on the president, it is almost certain to also turn on his party in the November 2002 elections.

So far, Bush has successfully walked the fine line between conservatism and moderation. Conservatives love his performance on taxes but complain about his willingness to compromise on education.

Even on the environment, where the president was hammered by opponents for his positions on clean air, clean water and global warming, Bush took pains to leave some of President Clinton's pro-environment decisions in place.

Although Bush's agenda has clearly been conservative, his rhetoric continues to emphasize bipartisanship, civility and moderation. That is a politically effective mix reminiscent of the way Bill Clinton governed.

But George W. Bush's approval numbers have started to slide a bit, and he faces some difficulties that are not his own making.

His job approval problems probably stem from the public's continued concern about the economy and increasing worries about the cost and availability of energy. The president's tax cut seeks to stimulate the economy, but he simply does not have the means to turn around the economy quickly.

The same goes for the growing gasoline crisis. The president has emphasized a long-term approach to increase energy supplies, but he has relatively limited options when it comes to increasing supplies and lowering the price of gasoline immediately.

Just as important, after Congress passes the $1.35 trillion tax cut and enacts education legislation, the president will have to turn to other policy matters, some of which are exceedingly controversial.

Social Security reform remains politically explosive, patients' bill of rights legislation seems unlikely as long as the two sides are divided over liability, and prescription drugs coverage for seniors will not be easy to accomplish within current budget assumptions.

The administration would prefer not to have to take a stand on the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill, and growing international problems -- in the Middle East, and in U.S.-Europe and U.S.-China relations -- offer large risks and few rewards for the president.

The more decisions Bush makes -- about a higher minimum wage, gun control, abortion, trade and judicial nominations -- the more difficult it will be for him to walk his fine ideological line. If he is skillful, of course, he can succeed.

The biggest problem for the president may well be the unknown. Bush has been skillful in dealing with issues with which he is familiar and comfortable. He has been effective in setting an initial agenda and controlling process. But presidents are judged on how they deal with the unexpected and handle adversity.

One year from now, we will have a better idea about Bush's skills and performance. And we will know whether he approaches the midterm elections as an asset for his party, or as an albatross for Republicans.

Rothenberg Senate ratings

Republicans

Toss-up: Helms (North Carolina), Hutchinson (Arkansas), Smith (New Hampshire).

Slight advantage for retention: Allard (Colorado), Collins (Maine), Smith (Oregon).

Clear advantage for retention: McConnell, (Kentucky), Sessions (Alabama).

Safe: South Carolina open seat, Cochran (Mississippi), Craig (Idaho), Domenici (New Mexico), Enzi (Wyoming), Gramm (Texas), Hagel (Nevada), Inhofe (Oklahoma), Roberts (Kansas), Stevens (Alaska), Thompson (Tennessee), Warner (Virginia).

Democrats

Toss-up: Carnahan (Missouri), Harkin (Iowa), Torricelli (New Jersey), Wellstone (Minnesota).

Slight advantage for retention: Baucus (Montana), Cleland (Georgia), Landrieu (Louisiana).

Clear advantage for retention: Johnson (South Dakota).

Safe: Biden (Delaware), Durbin (Illinois), Kerry (Massachusetts), Levin (Michigan), Reed (Rhode Island), Rockefeller (West Virginia).