Poll: Public split on Bush's handling of pressing problems

By Keating Holland
CNN Polling Director

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most Americans think President Bush is doing a good job providing strong leadership for the country, but the public is split over whether he is paying enough attention to the country's most important problems, according to the results of a new CNN/Time poll of 1,031 Americans, conducted on May 23 and 24.

On energy in particular, only 38 percent say he is doing a good job.

Bush's ratings are higher on the economy, taxes, and world affairs (although only about half say he is doing a good job in each of those areas), and 52 percent approve of how he is handling his job overall. About half favor the tax cut now before Congress, but a plurality disapprove of Bush's energy plan announced last week.

Right now, only 43 percent say they are likely to vote for Bush if he runs for re-election in 2004; while half say they are unlikely to vote for him. Before Democrats start celebrating, it's worth pointing out that Bill Clinton had similar numbers at this point in his first term, and went on to a comfortable victory in 1996.

Bush also has some advantages Clinton did not have in May of 1993. Most Americans thought that Clinton wasn't paying enough attention to important problems in 1993 -- today the public is split over Bush.

Only 31 percent said that Clinton was a leader they could trust in May of 1993, while 45 percent say that about Bush today.

Note, however, that a majority say they have some doubts and reservations about Bush.

Who would Bush face in 2004? If Democrats were asked to choose their party's nominee today, 44 percent would prefer Al Gore, with Hillary Clinton finishing second.

The bottom line for Bush: the country appears about as divided as it was on Election Day last year, and although the public has a few doubts about him, Bush's personal qualities -- rather than his record on the issues -- may be keeping his approval rating above the crucial 50 percent mark.

CNN/TIME POLL
May 23-24

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job as President?

How do you think Bush is handling energy?

Do you think President Bush is doing a good job or a poor job: (a) handling the economy (b) handling foreign policy (c) handling energy policy (d) handling taxes?

How do you think Bush is handling taxes?

Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the tax cut plan now before Congress?

Do you think President Bush is doing a good job or a poor job providing strong leadership for the country?

Has Bush paid enough attention to most important problems?

So far, would you say George W. Bush has had the right priorities, or that he hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems?

Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose President Bush's plan to deal with the country's current energy problems?

Would you be likely to vote for Bush if he runs for re-election?

Would you be likely to Vote for Bush if he runs for re-election?

If George W. Bush runs for re-election, how likely are you to vote for him -- very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Is Bush a leader you can trust?

Do you think George W. Bush is a leader you can trust, or do you have some doubts and reservations?

Democrats' choice for nominee in 2004

Thinking ahead to the year 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic nominee for President today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for?

The public's view of the economy may have turned a corner in the last few weeks. In March, nearly half of all Americans said a recession was likely in the next year. Now, only 36 percent forecast a recession. And although Americans don't feel as positive about the economy as they did at the start of the year, the drop in their ratings of the economy appears to have stopped.

In January, 82 percent said the economy was in good shape. By February, that had slid to 73 percent, and by March it had dropped another few points to 69 percent. But today's figures are almost identical to the March numbers, indicating that the public is no longer souring on the economy as it was at the start of the year. Optimism is also rebounding somewhat, with the number who say the economy will get better growing from 18 percent in January to 30 percent today.

During the next 12 months, do you think it is likely or unlikely that a recession will occur in this country?

Do you think economic conditions are good today?

Thinking about the economy, how would you describe economic conditions in the U.S. today as being very good, fairly good, poor, or very poor?

How do you think economic conditions will be a year from now?

During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in this country will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?